Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Zhongliang Holdings Group Company Limited (HKG:2772) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
How Much Debt Does Zhongliang Holdings Group Carry?
As you can see below, Zhongliang Holdings Group had CN¥20.3b of debt at December 2024, down from CN¥21.2b a year prior. On the flip side, it has CN¥5.78b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥14.5b.
How Strong Is Zhongliang Holdings Group's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Zhongliang Holdings Group had liabilities of CN¥102.0b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥11.8b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥5.78b as well as receivables valued at CN¥11.8b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥96.2b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CN¥364.7m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Zhongliang Holdings Group would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Zhongliang Holdings Group's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot .
See our latest analysis for Zhongliang Holdings Group
In the last year Zhongliang Holdings Group had a loss before interest and tax, and actually shrunk its revenue by 40%, to CN¥40b. That makes us nervous, to say the least.
Caveat Emptor
While Zhongliang Holdings Group's falling revenue is about as heartwarming as a wet blanket, arguably its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss is even less appealing. Its EBIT loss was a whopping CN¥266m. When you combine this with the very significant balance sheet liabilities mentioned above, we are so wary of it that we are basically at a loss for the right words. Sure, the company might have a nice story about how they are going on to a brighter future. But the reality is that it is low on liquid assets relative to liabilities, and it lost CN¥2.4b in the last year. So we think buying this stock is risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example Zhongliang Holdings Group has 4 warning signs (and 2 which are significant) we think you should know about.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Zhongliang Holdings Group might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SEHK:2772
Zhongliang Holdings Group
An investment holding company, engages in property development and leasing business in Mainland China.
Slight with mediocre balance sheet.
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