China Overseas Property Holdings Limited Just Beat EPS By 6.9%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

China Overseas Property Holdings Limited (HKG:2669) defied analyst predictions to release its half-year results, which were ahead of market expectations. The company beat expectations with revenues of CN¥6.5b arriving 3.3% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were CN¥0.21, 6.9% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for China Overseas Property Holdings from 15 analysts is for revenues of CN¥14.7b in 2025. If met, it would imply a reasonable 2.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 3.1% to CN¥0.48. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥14.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.49 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for China Overseas Property Holdings

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at HK$6.35. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values China Overseas Property Holdings at HK$7.60 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$5.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that China Overseas Property Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 5.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 20% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while China Overseas Property Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$6.35, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for China Overseas Property Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our analysis of China Overseas Property Holdings' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.