ESR Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 1821 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

1821 (HK$11.9) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$17.57)

Is 1821 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1821 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1821 (HK$11.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$17.57)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1821 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1821?

Key metric: As 1821 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 1821. This is calculated by dividing 1821's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 1821's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	10.5x
Sales	US$622.38m
Market Cap	US$6.53b

1821 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	19.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	87.7x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 1821's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 1821 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	2.2x
4 Wharf (Holdings)	3.6x	-1.3%	HK$66.9b
683 Kerry Properties	1.8x	9.2%	HK$22.3b
17 New World Development	0.4x	2.9%	HK$13.5b
16 Sun Hung Kai Properties	3x	5.7%	HK$215.9b
1821 ESR Group	10.5x	15.4%	HK$50.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 1821 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (10.5x) compared to the peer average (2.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 1821's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

93 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
1908 C&D International Investment Group	0.2x	3.1%	US$3.32b
3900 Greentown China Holdings	0.2x	-0.4%	US$3.03b
1918 Sunac China Holdings	0.2x	-14.2%	US$2.79b
2007 Country Garden Holdings	0.03x	-17.3%	US$1.72b

93 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 1821 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (10.5x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1821's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1821 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	10.5x
Fair PS Ratio	6.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 1821 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (10.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (6.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1821 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$11.90	HK$13.95 +17.3%	13.4%	HK$17.40	HK$12.07	n/a	5
Dec ’25	HK$11.44	HK$14.62 +27.8%	12.1%	HK$17.40	HK$12.08	n/a	6
Nov ’25	HK$10.74	HK$13.80 +28.5%	15.7%	HK$17.40	HK$10.12	n/a	8
Oct ’25	HK$12.40	HK$14.17 +14.2%	17.0%	HK$17.41	HK$10.16	n/a	8
Sep ’25	HK$12.10	HK$14.17 +17.1%	17.0%	HK$17.41	HK$10.16	n/a	8
Aug ’25	HK$11.72	HK$15.43 +31.7%	16.9%	HK$18.00	HK$10.17	n/a	8
Jul ’25	HK$10.26	HK$15.43 +50.4%	16.9%	HK$17.98	HK$10.18	n/a	8
Jun ’25	HK$11.00	HK$15.43 +40.3%	16.9%	HK$17.98	HK$10.18	n/a	8
May ’25	HK$8.64	HK$15.01 +73.8%	17.8%	HK$18.01	HK$10.20	n/a	11
Apr ’25	HK$8.37	HK$15.01 +79.4%	17.8%	HK$18.01	HK$10.20	n/a	11
Mar ’25	HK$10.08	HK$18.62 +84.7%	17.3%	HK$27.16	HK$14.60	n/a	10
Feb ’25	HK$9.90	HK$18.23 +84.2%	11.5%	HK$21.73	HK$14.60	n/a	9
Jan ’25	HK$10.80	HK$18.63 +72.5%	9.9%	HK$21.70	HK$15.73	n/a	9
Dec ’24	HK$9.96	HK$19.42 +95.0%	15.8%	HK$27.01	HK$15.69	HK$11.44	10
Nov ’24	HK$10.18	HK$19.49 +91.4%	15.8%	HK$27.12	HK$15.75	HK$10.74	10
Oct ’24	HK$11.00	HK$19.50 +77.3%	15.8%	HK$27.12	HK$15.77	HK$12.40	10
Sep ’24	HK$11.78	HK$19.54 +65.9%	15.8%	HK$27.18	HK$15.80	HK$12.10	10
Aug ’24	HK$13.38	HK$21.79 +62.9%	12.5%	HK$27.05	HK$17.39	HK$11.72	10
Jul ’24	HK$13.44	HK$21.86 +62.6%	12.5%	HK$27.14	HK$17.47	HK$10.26	10
Jun ’24	HK$11.68	HK$21.96 +88.0%	12.4%	HK$27.15	HK$17.47	HK$11.00	10
May ’24	HK$12.22	HK$21.99 +80.0%	12.4%	HK$27.15	HK$17.50	HK$8.64	10
Apr ’24	HK$14.08	HK$21.99 +56.2%	12.4%	HK$27.15	HK$17.51	HK$8.37	10
Mar ’24	HK$13.70	HK$26.15 +90.9%	9.3%	HK$29.38	HK$22.12	HK$10.08	9
Feb ’24	HK$16.04	HK$28.51 +77.7%	13.3%	HK$35.46	HK$22.10	HK$9.90	10
Jan ’24	HK$16.38	HK$29.32 +79.0%	14.7%	HK$35.34	HK$22.02	HK$10.80	10
Dec ’23	HK$17.32	HK$29.37 +69.6%	14.0%	HK$35.35	HK$22.02	HK$9.96	11

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/27 11:42
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/27 00:00
Earnings	2024/06/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

ESR Group Limited is covered by 14 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Donald Chua	BofA Global Research
Yuanqi Sun	China International Capital Corporation Limited
Cong Chen	Citic Securities Co., Ltd.