ESR Group Valuation
Is 1821 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 1821 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: 1821 (HK$11.02) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$16.16)
Significantly Below Fair Value: 1821 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1821?
Key metric: As 1821 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is 1821's PS Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PS Ratio | 9.7x |
| Sales | US$622.38m |
| Market Cap | US$6.04b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 18.5x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 84.1x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does 1821's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 1.7x | ||
4 Wharf (Holdings) | 3.7x | -1.3% | HK$65.9b |
683 Kerry Properties | 1.8x | 9.8% | HK$22.4b |
17 New World Development | 0.5x | 2.6% | HK$16.9b |
41 Great Eagle Holdings | 0.7x | n/a | HK$8.1b |
1821 ESR Group | 9.7x | 14.9% | HK$46.8b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 1821 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (9.7x) compared to the peer average (1.7x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry
How does 1821's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 1821 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (9.7x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (0.6x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 1821's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 9.7x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 6x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 1821 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (9.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (6x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | HK$11.02 | HK$14.35 +30.2% | 12.4% | HK$17.42 | HK$12.09 | n/a | 7 |
| Nov ’25 | HK$10.74 | HK$13.80 +28.5% | 15.7% | HK$17.40 | HK$10.12 | n/a | 8 |
| Oct ’25 | HK$12.40 | HK$14.17 +14.3% | 17.0% | HK$17.41 | HK$10.16 | n/a | 8 |
| Sep ’25 | HK$12.10 | HK$14.17 +17.1% | 17.0% | HK$17.41 | HK$10.16 | n/a | 8 |
| Aug ’25 | HK$11.72 | HK$15.43 +31.7% | 16.9% | HK$18.00 | HK$10.17 | n/a | 8 |
| Jul ’25 | HK$10.26 | HK$15.43 +50.4% | 16.9% | HK$17.98 | HK$10.18 | n/a | 8 |
| Jun ’25 | HK$11.00 | HK$15.43 +40.3% | 16.9% | HK$17.98 | HK$10.18 | n/a | 8 |
| May ’25 | HK$8.64 | HK$15.01 +73.8% | 17.8% | HK$18.01 | HK$10.20 | n/a | 11 |
| Apr ’25 | HK$8.37 | HK$15.01 +79.4% | 17.8% | HK$18.01 | HK$10.20 | n/a | 11 |
| Mar ’25 | HK$10.08 | HK$18.62 +84.7% | 17.3% | HK$27.16 | HK$14.60 | n/a | 10 |
| Feb ’25 | HK$9.90 | HK$18.23 +84.2% | 11.5% | HK$21.73 | HK$14.60 | n/a | 9 |
| Jan ’25 | HK$10.80 | HK$18.63 +72.5% | 9.9% | HK$21.70 | HK$15.73 | n/a | 9 |
| Dec ’24 | HK$9.96 | HK$19.42 +95.0% | 15.8% | HK$27.01 | HK$15.69 | n/a | 10 |
| Nov ’24 | HK$10.18 | HK$19.49 +91.4% | 15.8% | HK$27.12 | HK$15.75 | HK$10.74 | 10 |
| Oct ’24 | HK$11.00 | HK$19.50 +77.3% | 15.8% | HK$27.12 | HK$15.77 | HK$12.40 | 10 |
| Sep ’24 | HK$11.78 | HK$19.54 +65.9% | 15.8% | HK$27.18 | HK$15.80 | HK$12.10 | 10 |
| Aug ’24 | HK$13.38 | HK$21.79 +62.9% | 12.5% | HK$27.05 | HK$17.39 | HK$11.72 | 10 |
| Jul ’24 | HK$13.44 | HK$21.86 +62.6% | 12.5% | HK$27.14 | HK$17.47 | HK$10.26 | 10 |
| Jun ’24 | HK$11.68 | HK$21.96 +88.0% | 12.4% | HK$27.15 | HK$17.47 | HK$11.00 | 10 |
| May ’24 | HK$12.22 | HK$21.99 +80.0% | 12.4% | HK$27.15 | HK$17.50 | HK$8.64 | 10 |
| Apr ’24 | HK$14.08 | HK$21.99 +56.2% | 12.4% | HK$27.15 | HK$17.51 | HK$8.37 | 10 |
| Mar ’24 | HK$13.70 | HK$26.15 +90.9% | 9.3% | HK$29.38 | HK$22.12 | HK$10.08 | 9 |
| Feb ’24 | HK$16.04 | HK$28.51 +77.7% | 13.3% | HK$35.46 | HK$22.10 | HK$9.90 | 10 |
| Jan ’24 | HK$16.38 | HK$29.32 +79.0% | 14.7% | HK$35.34 | HK$22.02 | HK$10.80 | 10 |
| Dec ’23 | HK$17.32 | HK$29.37 +69.6% | 14.0% | HK$35.35 | HK$22.02 | HK$9.96 | 11 |
| Nov ’23 | HK$13.90 | HK$30.13 +116.8% | 11.4% | HK$35.53 | HK$23.51 | HK$10.18 | 11 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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