China Medical System Holdings (SHSC:867) Stock Valuation, Peer Comparison & Price Targets

Q: What is the Fair Price of 867 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

867 (HK$7.75) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$43.09)

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 867 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 867 (HK$7.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$43.09)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 867 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 867?

Key metric: As 867 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 867. This is calculated by dividing 867's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 867's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	12.5x
Earnings	CN¥1.39b
Market Cap	CN¥17.42b

867 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	6.7x
PEG Ratio	0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 867's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 867 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	7.9x
3933 United Laboratories International Holdings	6.1x	3.9%	HK$18.9b
512 Grand Pharmaceutical Group	6.4x	2.3%	HK$15.4b
570 China Traditional Chinese Medicine Holdings	11.3x	n/a	HK$11.2b
2005 SSY Group	7.7x	5.8%	HK$10.6b
867 China Medical System Holdings	12.5x	21.4%	HK$18.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 867 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x) compared to the peer average (7.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 867's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Pharmaceuticals Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies available in this PE range

0 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 867 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x) compared to the Hong Kong Pharmaceuticals industry average (8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 867's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

867 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	12.5x
Fair PE Ratio	14.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 867 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 867 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$7.75	HK$10.87 +40.2%	11.4%	HK$13.84	HK$9.43	n/a	9
Nov ’25	HK$7.88	HK$11.01 +39.8%	11.3%	HK$14.00	HK$9.54	n/a	9
Oct ’25	HK$8.95	HK$11.01 +23.1%	11.3%	HK$14.00	HK$9.54	n/a	9
Sep ’25	HK$7.12	HK$10.99 +54.3%	11.9%	HK$14.16	HK$9.50	n/a	9
Aug ’25	HK$6.49	HK$10.71 +64.9%	14.0%	HK$12.89	HK$7.70	n/a	9
Jul ’25	HK$6.62	HK$10.85 +63.8%	13.0%	HK$12.91	HK$8.44	n/a	8
Jun ’25	HK$6.61	HK$10.91 +65.0%	13.1%	HK$12.99	HK$8.49	n/a	8
May ’25	HK$7.01	HK$10.90 +55.5%	13.1%	HK$12.98	HK$8.48	n/a	8
Apr ’25	HK$8.22	HK$17.14 +108.5%	11.5%	HK$19.15	HK$13.00	n/a	8
Mar ’25	HK$12.74	HK$17.94 +40.9%	6.8%	HK$19.28	HK$15.03	n/a	8
Feb ’25	HK$11.28	HK$18.18 +61.2%	8.3%	HK$20.66	HK$15.06	n/a	8
Jan ’25	HK$13.84	HK$18.22 +31.6%	8.7%	HK$20.83	HK$15.18	n/a	8
Dec ’24	HK$15.00	HK$18.09 +20.6%	8.3%	HK$20.64	HK$15.38	n/a	8
Nov ’24	HK$12.52	HK$17.70 +41.4%	8.7%	HK$20.33	HK$15.15	HK$7.88	7
Oct ’24	HK$11.86	HK$17.45 +47.1%	8.2%	HK$20.29	HK$15.12	HK$8.95	7
Sep ’24	HK$11.32	HK$17.13 +51.3%	9.8%	HK$20.40	HK$14.50	HK$7.12	8
Aug ’24	HK$13.20	HK$16.86 +27.7%	10.2%	HK$19.98	HK$14.00	HK$6.49	8
Jul ’24	HK$12.76	HK$16.61 +30.2%	10.5%	HK$19.14	HK$13.39	HK$6.62	8
Jun ’24	HK$11.24	HK$16.46 +46.4%	9.8%	HK$19.33	HK$13.53	HK$6.61	8
May ’24	HK$13.00	HK$16.86 +29.7%	10.2%	HK$20.07	HK$14.04	HK$7.01	8
Apr ’24	HK$12.40	HK$16.16 +30.4%	15.2%	HK$20.01	HK$10.96	HK$8.22	9
Mar ’24	HK$12.70	HK$16.75 +31.9%	24.5%	HK$26.62	HK$10.98	HK$12.74	9
Feb ’24	HK$13.80	HK$17.15 +24.3%	24.1%	HK$27.02	HK$11.14	HK$11.28	9
Jan ’24	HK$12.28	HK$16.02 +30.5%	26.3%	HK$25.99	HK$10.72	HK$13.84	9
Dec ’23	HK$11.34	HK$15.60 +37.6%	25.3%	HK$24.73	HK$10.49	HK$15.00	9
Nov ’23	HK$9.25	HK$15.48 +67.4%	25.3%	HK$24.54	HK$10.41	HK$12.52	9

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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China Medical System Holdings Valuation