Akeso Valuation

Is 9926 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 9926 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 9926 (HK$47.45) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$90.96)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 9926 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9926?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

9926 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA20.7x
PEG Ratio1.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 9926's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 9926 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.5x
2696 Shanghai Henlius Biotech
14.5x15.9%HK$8.5b
6826 Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology
14.8xn/aHK$15.0b
1530 3SBio
8.3x12.6%HK$13.9b
2142 HBM Holdings
4.6xn/aHK$820.6m
9926 Akeso
18.7x12.2%HK$41.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 9926 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x) compared to the peer average (10.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 9926's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Biotechs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a35.5%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a35.5%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 9926 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x) compared to the Asian Biotechs industry average (34x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 9926's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

9926 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.7x
Fair PE Ratio12.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 9926 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 9926 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$47.45
HK$59.75
+25.9%
9.3%HK$68.75HK$49.50n/a18
Apr ’25HK$46.65
HK$59.65
+27.9%
9.3%HK$68.52HK$49.48n/a18
Mar ’25HK$46.70
HK$56.09
+20.1%
9.0%HK$65.98HK$49.00n/a18
Feb ’25HK$41.45
HK$55.40
+33.7%
12.6%HK$66.38HK$35.94n/a18
Jan ’25HK$46.40
HK$54.91
+18.3%
11.5%HK$66.73HK$36.36n/a18
Dec ’24HK$48.50
HK$55.09
+13.6%
11.7%HK$66.54HK$36.08n/a17
Nov ’24HK$43.95
HK$53.69
+22.2%
11.3%HK$64.92HK$35.97n/a17
Oct ’24HK$36.00
HK$54.07
+50.2%
11.3%HK$64.97HK$35.93n/a18
Sep ’24HK$34.45
HK$54.62
+58.6%
10.9%HK$61.61HK$36.11n/a17
Aug ’24HK$42.40
HK$54.93
+29.6%
12.7%HK$61.89HK$31.87n/a17
Jul ’24HK$35.35
HK$54.58
+54.4%
13.1%HK$62.18HK$32.02n/a15
Jun ’24HK$35.40
HK$55.08
+55.6%
13.0%HK$63.08HK$31.05n/a17
May ’24HK$42.85
HK$56.13
+31.0%
12.7%HK$64.74HK$31.87n/a17
Apr ’24HK$40.40
HK$56.46
+39.7%
12.7%HK$65.11HK$32.05HK$46.6517
Mar ’24HK$41.50
HK$52.94
+27.6%
16.2%HK$64.06HK$31.58HK$46.7015
Feb ’24HK$49.00
HK$52.86
+7.9%
16.7%HK$65.30HK$32.19HK$41.4514
Jan ’24HK$43.00
HK$43.27
+0.6%
23.2%HK$62.83HK$27.20HK$46.4015
Dec ’23HK$33.75
HK$34.46
+2.1%
20.3%HK$54.47HK$26.41HK$48.5014
Nov ’23HK$31.10
HK$32.70
+5.1%
17.5%HK$48.63HK$26.18HK$43.9512
Oct ’23HK$21.70
HK$34.29
+58.0%
18.6%HK$51.38HK$27.66HK$36.0011
Sep ’23HK$25.95
HK$34.29
+32.1%
18.6%HK$51.38HK$27.66HK$34.4511
Aug ’23HK$21.15
HK$38.37
+81.4%
25.3%HK$57.05HK$28.52HK$42.4011
Jul ’23HK$23.05
HK$37.19
+61.3%
29.0%HK$57.04HK$20.05HK$35.3511
Jun ’23HK$16.62
HK$36.48
+119.5%
31.5%HK$56.62HK$19.90HK$35.4010
May ’23HK$14.96
HK$38.47
+157.1%
31.9%HK$60.03HK$21.02HK$42.8510
Apr ’23HK$15.54
HK$47.34
+204.7%
38.2%HK$75.75HK$21.00HK$40.4010

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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