Earnings Update: Here's Why Analysts Just Lifted Their Akeso, Inc. (HKG:9926) Price Target To HK$104

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Akeso, Inc. (HKG:9926), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its yearly results last week. Unfortunately, Akeso delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of CN¥2.1b were 14% below expectations, and statutory losses ballooned 31% to CN¥0.60 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following the latest results, Akeso's 20 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥3.55b in 2025. This would be a huge 67% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Akeso forecast to report a statutory profit of CN¥0.051 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥3.59b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.08 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Akeso

Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 13% to HK$104, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Akeso analyst has a price target of HK$150 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$65.24. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Akeso'shistorical trends, as the 67% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 58% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 25% per year. So it's pretty clear that Akeso is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Akeso. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Akeso going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Akeso has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.