Earnings Update: Here's Why Analysts Just Lifted Their Akeso, Inc. (HKG:9926) Price Target To HK$82.91

Akeso, Inc. (HKG:9926) just released its latest annual report and things are not looking great. Unfortunately, Akeso delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of CN¥2.1b were 14% below expectations, and statutory losses ballooned 31% to CN¥0.60 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Akeso from 19 analysts is for revenues of CN¥3.73b in 2025. If met, it would imply a major 76% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Akeso is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of CN¥0.19 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥3.86b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.14 in 2025. Although the analysts have lowered their revenue forecasts, they've also made a great increase in their earnings per share estimates, which implies there's been something of an uptick in sentiment following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Akeso

The average price target rose 6.8% to HK$82.91, with the analysts signalling that the improved earnings outlook is the key driver of value for shareholders - enough to offset the reduction in revenue estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Akeso, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$104 and the most bearish at HK$57.45 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Akeso's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 76% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 58% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 24% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Akeso is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Akeso's earnings potential next year. They also downgraded Akeso's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Akeso going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.