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SciClone Pharmaceuticals (Holdings) Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 6600 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

6600 (HK$18.72) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$65.17)

Is 6600 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 6600 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 6600 (HK$18.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$65.17)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 6600 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 6600?

Key metric: As 6600 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 6600. This is calculated by dividing 6600's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 6600's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	9.4x
Earnings	CN¥1.12b
Market Cap	CN¥10.59b

6600 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.6x
PEG Ratio	2.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 6600's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 6600 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	8.3x
2005 SSY Group	7.6x	5.8%	HK$10.4b
2096 Simcere Pharmaceutical Group	n/a	74.6%	HK$16.4b
2186 Luye Pharma Group	11.5x	16.9%	HK$9.5b
3933 United Laboratories International Holdings	5.8x	3.9%	HK$18.2b
6600 SciClone Pharmaceuticals (Holdings)	9.4x	4.1%	HK$11.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 6600 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.4x) compared to the peer average (13x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 6600's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Pharmaceuticals Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies available in this PE range

0 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 6600 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.4x) compared to the Hong Kong Pharmaceuticals industry average (7.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 6600's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

6600 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	9.4x
Fair PE Ratio	10.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 6600 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 6600 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	n/a	HK$15.64 0%	13.7%	HK$17.77	HK$13.50	n/a	2
Nov ’25	n/a	HK$15.64 0%	13.7%	HK$17.77	HK$13.50	n/a	2
Oct ’25	n/a	HK$15.64 0%	13.7%	HK$17.77	HK$13.50	n/a	2
Sep ’25	n/a	HK$15.64 0%	13.7%	HK$17.77	HK$13.50	n/a	2
Aug ’25	n/a	HK$15.64 0%	13.7%	HK$17.77	HK$13.50	n/a	2
Jul ’25	HK$18.72	HK$17.86 -4.6%	0.3%	HK$17.90	HK$17.81	n/a	2
Jun ’25	HK$18.50	HK$17.86 -3.5%	0.3%	HK$17.90	HK$17.81	n/a	2
May ’25	HK$17.94	HK$17.86 -0.5%	0.3%	HK$17.90	HK$17.81	n/a	2
Apr ’25	n/a	HK$15.80 0%	13.3%	HK$17.90	HK$13.70	n/a	2
Mar ’25	HK$13.30	HK$15.80 +18.8%	13.3%	HK$17.90	HK$13.70	n/a	2
Feb ’25	HK$11.44	HK$15.83 +38.4%	13.7%	HK$18.00	HK$13.66	n/a	2
Jan ’25	HK$13.92	HK$15.83 +13.7%	13.7%	HK$18.00	HK$13.66	n/a	2
Dec ’24	HK$13.40	HK$12.74 -4.9%	6.0%	HK$13.50	HK$11.98	n/a	2
Nov ’24	HK$10.46	HK$12.23 +16.9%	2.0%	HK$12.47	HK$11.99	n/a	2
Oct ’24	HK$9.99	HK$12.23 +22.4%	2.0%	HK$12.47	HK$11.99	n/a	2
Sep ’24	HK$9.46	HK$12.58 +33.0%	5.1%	HK$13.40	HK$11.85	n/a	3
Aug ’24	HK$10.42	HK$12.24 +17.4%	3.1%	HK$12.78	HK$11.93	n/a	3
Jul ’24	HK$10.54	HK$12.25 +16.2%	3.2%	HK$12.80	HK$11.95	HK$18.72	3
Jun ’24	HK$10.26	HK$12.53 +22.1%	4.1%	HK$13.23	HK$12.00	HK$18.50	3
May ’24	HK$11.86	HK$12.25 +3.3%	8.6%	HK$13.40	HK$10.85	HK$17.94	3
Apr ’24	HK$10.24	HK$11.89 +16.1%	6.2%	HK$12.50	HK$10.86	n/a	3
Mar ’24	HK$10.28	HK$11.63 +13.1%	5.3%	HK$12.47	HK$11.00	HK$13.30	3
Feb ’24	HK$9.84	HK$11.19 +13.7%	8.2%	HK$12.29	HK$10.04	HK$11.44	3
Jan ’24	HK$8.29	HK$11.28 +36.1%	11.6%	HK$13.00	HK$9.83	HK$13.92	3
Dec ’23	HK$6.11	HK$10.94 +79.1%	10.7%	HK$12.52	HK$9.70	HK$13.40	3
Nov ’23	HK$5.96	HK$10.94 +83.6%	10.7%	HK$12.52	HK$9.70	HK$10.46	3

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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