Dowway Holdings Limited (HKG:8403) Shares May Have Slumped 33% But Getting In Cheap Is Still Unlikely

Dowway Holdings Limited (HKG:8403) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 33% share price drop in the last month. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 24% in that time.

Even after such a large drop in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Dowway Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.5x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Media industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.8x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

View our latest analysis for Dowway Holdings

How Has Dowway Holdings Performed Recently?

For example, consider that Dowway Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Dowway Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Dowway Holdings' is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 29% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 24% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 5.8% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Dowway Holdings is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

With its share price dropping off a cliff, the P/S for Dowway Holdings looks to be in line with the rest of the Media industry. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

The fact that Dowway Holdings currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 5 warning signs for Dowway Holdings (3 are potentially serious) you should be aware of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.