Pacific Online Limited's (HKG:543) 31% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Pacific Online Limited (HKG:543) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 31% gain in the last month alone. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 21% is also fairly reasonable.

Even after such a large jump in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Pacific Online's P/S ratio of 0.8x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Interactive Media and Services industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.9x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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View our latest analysis for Pacific Online

How Has Pacific Online Performed Recently?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Pacific Online over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Pacific Online will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Pacific Online would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 14%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 25% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 9.7% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Pacific Online's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What Does Pacific Online's P/S Mean For Investors?

Pacific Online appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

The fact that Pacific Online currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

Having said that, be aware Pacific Online is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 2 of those are concerning.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.