Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Valuation
Is 2689 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
2/6Valuation Score 2/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 2689 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: 2689 (HK$3.18) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$3.24)
Significantly Below Fair Value: 2689 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2689?
Key metric: As 2689 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is 2689's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 18.5x |
| Earnings | CN¥750.68m |
| Market Cap | CN¥13.89b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.2x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 11.9x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.5x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does 2689's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 8.2x | ||
2314 Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing | 6.7x | 12.3% | HK$10.1b |
639 Shougang Fushan Resources Group | 8.9x | -4.7% | HK$13.3b |
2245 Lygend Resources & Technology | 9x | n/a | HK$12.6b |
1258 China Nonferrous Mining | 8.2x | 16.9% | HK$19.8b |
2689 Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) | 18.5x | 34.4% | HK$14.9b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2689 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x) compared to the peer average (8.2x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does 2689's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Forestry Industry?
| 6 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2689 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x) compared to the Asian Forestry industry average (18.2x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 2689's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 18.5x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 15.1x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2689 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | HK$3.18 | HK$4.24 +33.4% | 11.4% | HK$5.00 | HK$3.54 | n/a | 10 |
| Nov ’25 | HK$3.38 | HK$4.33 +28.0% | 11.4% | HK$5.07 | HK$3.59 | n/a | 11 |
| Oct ’25 | HK$4.13 | HK$4.27 +3.5% | 11.8% | HK$5.15 | HK$3.54 | n/a | 12 |
| Sep ’25 | HK$3.05 | HK$4.38 +43.6% | 15.7% | HK$5.60 | HK$3.51 | n/a | 10 |
| Aug ’25 | HK$3.01 | HK$4.31 +43.2% | 14.1% | HK$5.48 | HK$3.50 | n/a | 11 |
| Jul ’25 | HK$3.25 | HK$4.31 +32.6% | 14.1% | HK$5.48 | HK$3.50 | n/a | 11 |
| Jun ’25 | HK$4.08 | HK$4.67 +14.6% | 17.4% | HK$6.29 | HK$3.58 | n/a | 11 |
| May ’25 | HK$3.48 | HK$4.31 +23.9% | 14.3% | HK$5.48 | HK$3.54 | n/a | 13 |
| Apr ’25 | HK$3.26 | HK$4.36 +33.8% | 13.6% | HK$5.51 | HK$3.56 | n/a | 13 |
| Mar ’25 | HK$3.49 | HK$4.34 +24.5% | 14.1% | HK$5.50 | HK$3.50 | n/a | 13 |
| Feb ’25 | HK$3.08 | HK$4.28 +39.0% | 12.1% | HK$5.06 | HK$3.50 | n/a | 12 |
| Jan ’25 | HK$3.85 | HK$4.45 +15.5% | 16.8% | HK$6.29 | HK$3.51 | n/a | 11 |
| Dec ’24 | HK$3.81 | HK$4.45 +16.7% | 16.8% | HK$6.29 | HK$3.51 | n/a | 11 |
| Nov ’24 | HK$4.46 | HK$4.44 -0.6% | 16.7% | HK$6.28 | HK$3.50 | HK$3.38 | 11 |
| Oct ’24 | HK$4.40 | HK$4.52 +2.7% | 15.2% | HK$6.30 | HK$3.91 | HK$4.13 | 11 |
| Sep ’24 | HK$4.35 | HK$5.60 +28.7% | 21.1% | HK$7.97 | HK$3.96 | HK$3.05 | 12 |
| Aug ’24 | HK$4.99 | HK$6.09 +22.0% | 26.8% | HK$9.48 | HK$4.00 | HK$3.01 | 12 |
| Jul ’24 | HK$4.83 | HK$6.38 +32.0% | 22.5% | HK$9.47 | HK$4.37 | HK$3.25 | 12 |
| Jun ’24 | HK$4.47 | HK$6.79 +51.8% | 25.1% | HK$10.01 | HK$4.47 | HK$4.08 | 13 |
| May ’24 | HK$5.43 | HK$6.87 +26.5% | 24.4% | HK$10.09 | HK$4.51 | HK$3.48 | 13 |
| Apr ’24 | HK$5.88 | HK$6.89 +17.2% | 23.6% | HK$10.01 | HK$4.47 | HK$3.26 | 13 |
| Mar ’24 | HK$6.55 | HK$6.89 +5.2% | 23.6% | HK$10.01 | HK$4.47 | HK$3.49 | 13 |
| Feb ’24 | HK$7.14 | HK$7.03 -1.5% | 25.6% | HK$11.50 | HK$4.40 | HK$3.08 | 12 |
| Jan ’24 | HK$7.12 | HK$6.67 -6.3% | 31.0% | HK$11.80 | HK$4.47 | HK$3.85 | 11 |
| Dec ’23 | HK$6.21 | HK$6.54 +5.4% | 31.2% | HK$11.54 | HK$4.36 | HK$3.81 | 11 |
| Nov ’23 | HK$4.73 | HK$6.40 +35.4% | 31.5% | HK$11.56 | HK$4.37 | HK$4.46 | 11 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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