Mongolian Mining (HKG:975) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital. It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Mongolian Mining Corporation (HKG:975) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Mongolian Mining

How Much Debt Does Mongolian Mining Carry?

As you can see below, Mongolian Mining had US$448.0m of debt at December 2019, down from US$476.8m a year prior. On the flip side, it has US$40.6m in cash leading to net debt of about US$407.4m.

A Look At Mongolian Mining's Liabilities

The latest balance sheet data shows that Mongolian Mining had liabilities of US$233.1m due within a year, and liabilities of US$633.1m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$40.6m as well as receivables valued at US$50.3m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$775.3m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit casts a shadow over the US$55.8m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Mongolian Mining would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Mongolian Mining has net debt worth 1.8 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 3.5 times the interest expense. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. Mongolian Mining grew its EBIT by 4.0% in the last year. Whilst that hardly knocks our socks off it is a positive when it comes to debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Mongolian Mining will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Mongolian Mining recorded free cash flow worth 56% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

Mulling over Mongolian Mining's attempt at staying on top of its total liabilities, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But at least it's pretty decent at converting EBIT to free cash flow; that's encouraging. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that Mongolian Mining's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Mongolian Mining that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

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