It's Down 26% But Mongolian Mining Corporation (HKG:975) Could Be Riskier Than It Looks

Mongolian Mining Corporation (HKG:975) shares have had a horrible month, losing 26% after a relatively good period beforehand. The good news is that in the last year, the stock has shone bright like a diamond, gaining 188%.

Even after such a large drop in price, Mongolian Mining's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 4.5x might still make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 9x and even P/E's above 18x are quite common. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Recent times have been quite advantageous for Mongolian Mining as its earnings have been rising very briskly. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

View our latest analysis for Mongolian Mining

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Mongolian Mining will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Does Growth Match The Low P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Mongolian Mining would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 287% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 676% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 18% over the next year, materially lower than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it odd that Mongolian Mining is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It looks like most investors are not convinced the company can maintain its recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

The softening of Mongolian Mining's shares means its P/E is now sitting at a pretty low level. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Mongolian Mining currently trades on a much lower than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is higher than the wider market forecast. There could be some major unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching this positive performance. At least price risks look to be very low if recent medium-term earnings trends continue, but investors seem to think future earnings could see a lot of volatility.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Mongolian Mining with six simple checks.

If you're unsure about the strength of Mongolian Mining's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com