Hop Fung Group Holdings Limited's (HKG:2320) 26% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Hop Fung Group Holdings Limited (HKG:2320) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 26% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Looking further back, the 20% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Hop Fung Group Holdings' P/S ratio of 0.4x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Packaging industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.7x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

See our latest analysis for Hop Fung Group Holdings

How Hop Fung Group Holdings Has Been Performing

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Hop Fung Group Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Hop Fung Group Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Hop Fung Group Holdings would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 22%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 80% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 34% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Hop Fung Group Holdings is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Hop Fung Group Holdings' P/S

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Hop Fung Group Holdings' P/S is back within range of the industry median. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

The fact that Hop Fung Group Holdings currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Hop Fung Group Holdings (1 doesn't sit too well with us) you should be aware of.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.