Earnings Not Telling The Story For Jia Yao Holdings Limited (HKG:1626) After Shares Rise 79%

Jia Yao Holdings Limited (HKG:1626) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 79% after a shaky period beforehand. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 23% in the last twelve months.

Following the firm bounce in price, Jia Yao Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 17.2x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 9x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

With earnings growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Jia Yao Holdings has been doing very well. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Jia Yao Holdings

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Jia Yao Holdings will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Is There Enough Growth For Jia Yao Holdings?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Jia Yao Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 232% gain to the company's bottom line. Still, EPS has barely risen at all from three years ago in total, which is not ideal. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 23% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's alarming that Jia Yao Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Jia Yao Holdings' P/E?

The strong share price surge has got Jia Yao Holdings' P/E rushing to great heights as well. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Jia Yao Holdings revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Jia Yao Holdings that you need to be mindful of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.