PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited

SZSC:2328 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$265.6b

PICC Property and Casualty Valuation

Is 2328 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2328 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2328 (HK$11.94) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$31.3)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2328 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2328?

Key metric: As 2328 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2328. This is calculated by dividing 2328's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2328's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10.8x
EarningsCN¥22.82b
Market CapCN¥247.41b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2328's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2328 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.1x
1339 People's Insurance Company (Group) of China
4x-2.1%HK$306.0b
2628 China Life Insurance
4.4x-19.0%HK$1.0t
1299 AIA Group
16.7x13.9%HK$627.3b
6963 Sunshine Insurance Group
7.5x17.0%HK$32.0b
2328 PICC Property and Casualty
10.8x11.1%HK$265.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2328 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x) compared to the peer average (8.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2328's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Insurance Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
2328 10.8xIndustry Avg. 10.8xNo. of Companies49PE0816243240+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2328 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x) compared to the Asian Insurance industry average (10.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2328's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2328 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.8x
Fair PE Ratio11.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2328 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2328 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$11.94
HK$13.16
+10.2%
13.0%HK$15.96HK$7.65n/a19
Nov ’25HK$11.98
HK$13.15
+9.8%
12.9%HK$16.21HK$7.78n/a19
Oct ’25HK$11.52
HK$12.31
+6.9%
12.8%HK$15.62HK$7.37n/a20
Sep ’25HK$10.10
HK$12.34
+22.2%
9.9%HK$15.54HK$9.70n/a20
Aug ’25HK$10.20
HK$12.04
+18.0%
9.2%HK$15.30HK$9.54n/a20
Jul ’25HK$9.70
HK$11.99
+23.6%
9.4%HK$15.19HK$9.44n/a20
Jun ’25HK$10.16
HK$12.04
+18.5%
9.3%HK$15.26HK$9.48n/a21
May ’25HK$9.77
HK$12.01
+23.0%
9.2%HK$15.27HK$9.49n/a22
Apr ’25HK$10.32
HK$11.95
+15.8%
9.9%HK$15.30HK$9.50n/a22
Mar ’25HK$10.78
HK$11.45
+6.2%
11.1%HK$14.79HK$8.34n/a22
Feb ’25HK$9.73
HK$11.29
+16.0%
9.6%HK$13.88HK$8.36n/a20
Jan ’25HK$9.28
HK$11.47
+23.6%
7.2%HK$13.38HK$10.31n/a19
Dec ’24HK$9.23
HK$11.15
+20.8%
9.0%HK$13.21HK$8.43n/a21
Nov ’24HK$9.28
HK$10.90
+17.5%
9.0%HK$12.96HK$8.27HK$11.9820
Oct ’24HK$10.06
HK$11.01
+9.4%
8.9%HK$13.00HK$8.30HK$11.5221
Sep ’24HK$9.02
HK$10.70
+18.7%
11.5%HK$12.95HK$8.36HK$10.1022
Aug ’24HK$8.84
HK$10.46
+18.3%
12.8%HK$12.82HK$8.09HK$10.2022
Jul ’24HK$8.71
HK$10.34
+18.7%
12.8%HK$12.76HK$8.05HK$9.7022
Jun ’24HK$9.33
HK$10.31
+10.5%
13.4%HK$13.01HK$8.10HK$10.1622
May ’24HK$9.47
HK$10.34
+9.2%
12.8%HK$12.39HK$8.06HK$9.7722
Apr ’24HK$8.01
HK$9.77
+22.0%
14.7%HK$12.44HK$7.67HK$10.3222
Mar ’24HK$7.05
HK$9.72
+37.9%
17.2%HK$12.21HK$6.16HK$10.7825
Feb ’24HK$7.41
HK$10.23
+38.1%
15.8%HK$13.68HK$7.37HK$9.7325
Jan ’24HK$7.41
HK$10.59
+42.9%
10.9%HK$13.28HK$8.53HK$9.2825
Dec ’23HK$7.40
HK$10.49
+41.8%
10.2%HK$12.92HK$8.38HK$9.2325
Nov ’23HK$7.41
HK$10.17
+37.3%
11.5%HK$12.74HK$7.77HK$9.2828

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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