AIA Group Limited

SHSC:1299 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$613.2b

AIA Group Valuation

Is 1299 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1299 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1299 (HK$56.65) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$102.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1299 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1299?

Key metric: As 1299 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1299. This is calculated by dividing 1299's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1299's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.3x
EarningsUS$4.83b
Market CapUS$78.81b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1299's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1299 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.7x
2628 China Life Insurance
4.3x-13.8%HK$1.0t
966 China Taiping Insurance Holdings
7.1x12.6%HK$42.7b
6963 Sunshine Insurance Group
7.4x17.0%HK$32.1b
1339 People's Insurance Company (Group) of China
4x-2.1%HK$300.4b
1299 AIA Group
16.3x13.9%HK$613.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1299 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the peer average (5.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1299's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Insurance Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
1299 16.3xIndustry Avg. 10.9xNo. of Companies48PE0816243240+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1299 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the Asian Insurance industry average (10.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1299's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1299 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.3x
Fair PE Ratio12.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1299 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1299 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$56.65
HK$93.13
+64.4%
8.6%HK$111.04HK$74.08n/a18
Nov ’25HK$62.25
HK$92.87
+49.2%
8.6%HK$111.05HK$74.03n/a18
Oct ’25HK$69.65
HK$90.44
+29.9%
7.4%HK$99.78HK$73.82n/a18
Sep ’25HK$55.45
HK$93.11
+67.9%
15.0%HK$144.60HK$74.01n/a19
Aug ’25HK$52.90
HK$93.15
+76.1%
14.8%HK$144.88HK$74.03n/a19
Jul ’25HK$53.00
HK$94.37
+78.1%
13.9%HK$144.81HK$73.88n/a20
Jun ’25HK$60.45
HK$94.68
+56.6%
13.8%HK$144.77HK$73.86n/a20
May ’25HK$57.80
HK$94.45
+63.4%
14.0%HK$145.08HK$74.02n/a20
Apr ’25HK$52.55
HK$96.82
+84.2%
13.1%HK$145.09HK$80.05n/a20
Mar ’25HK$62.55
HK$98.55
+57.6%
14.3%HK$145.09HK$80.03n/a20
Feb ’25HK$61.15
HK$99.74
+63.1%
13.6%HK$145.00HK$80.00n/a20
Jan ’25HK$68.05
HK$100.00
+47.0%
12.7%HK$145.06HK$86.78n/a21
Dec ’24HK$66.85
HK$100.68
+50.6%
12.9%HK$144.58HK$86.65n/a20
Nov ’24HK$67.40
HK$99.84
+48.1%
12.7%HK$144.87HK$86.94HK$62.2519
Oct ’24HK$63.85
HK$103.48
+62.1%
12.1%HK$144.60HK$86.76HK$69.6520
Sep ’24HK$71.20
HK$103.67
+45.6%
11.9%HK$145.06HK$86.09HK$55.4521
Aug ’24HK$77.15
HK$104.72
+35.7%
10.7%HK$144.65HK$89.99HK$52.9023
Jul ’24HK$79.10
HK$105.29
+33.1%
10.6%HK$145.07HK$89.86HK$53.0023
Jun ’24HK$75.20
HK$105.67
+40.5%
10.5%HK$144.67HK$89.92HK$60.4523
May ’24HK$84.95
HK$105.87
+24.6%
10.5%HK$145.01HK$90.00HK$57.8023
Apr ’24HK$82.65
HK$106.26
+28.6%
10.9%HK$145.02HK$89.99HK$52.5523
Mar ’24HK$85.50
HK$105.68
+23.6%
11.9%HK$145.28HK$77.99HK$62.5525
Feb ’24HK$86.95
HK$104.90
+20.6%
13.2%HK$145.01HK$69.23HK$61.1525
Jan ’24HK$86.80
HK$100.36
+15.6%
13.9%HK$141.58HK$68.91HK$68.0524
Dec ’23HK$80.35
HK$97.87
+21.8%
15.0%HK$141.87HK$68.66HK$66.8524
Nov ’23HK$63.40
HK$98.37
+55.2%
15.9%HK$142.00HK$69.00HK$67.4023

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China

CN¥867.5b

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, Ltd.

2318

CN¥44.30

7D

-3.7%

1Y

16.1%

China Taiping Insurance Holdings

HK$42.7b

An investment holding company, underwrites various insurance and reinsurance products in the People’s Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, and internationally.

966

HK$11.88

7D

-5.3%

1Y

65.9%

People's Insurance Company (Group) of China

HK$299.7b

An investment holding company, provides insurance products and services in the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong.

1339

HK$3.75

7D

-3.8%

1Y

45.9%