Is The Market Rewarding AIA Group Limited (HKG:1299) With A Negative Sentiment As A Result Of Its Mixed Fundamentals?

AIA Group (HKG:1299) has had a rough three months with its share price down 14%. It is possible that the markets have ignored the company's differing financials and decided to lean-in to the negative sentiment. Long-term fundamentals are usually what drive market outcomes, so it's worth paying close attention. Particularly, we will be paying attention to AIA Group's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

Check out our latest analysis for AIA Group

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for AIA Group is:

2.4% = US$1.0b ÷ US$42b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. Another way to think of that is that for every HK$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn HK$0.02 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

AIA Group's Earnings Growth And 2.4% ROE

As you can see, AIA Group's ROE looks pretty weak. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 5.0%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 12% seen by AIA Group was possibly a result of it having a lower ROE. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

Furthermore, even when compared to the industry, which has been shrinking its earnings at a rate of 0.08% over the last few years, we found that AIA Group's performance is pretty disappointing, as it suggests that the company has been shrunk its earnings at a rate faster than the industry.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Has the market priced in the future outlook for 1299? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is AIA Group Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 39% (that is, a retention ratio of 61%), the fact that AIA Group's earnings have shrunk is quite puzzling. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Moreover, AIA Group has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 37% of its profits over the next three years. However, AIA Group's ROE is predicted to rise to 17% despite there being no anticipated change in its payout ratio.

Summary

Overall, we have mixed feelings about AIA Group. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.