China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd.

SZSC:1117 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$6.3b

China Modern Dairy Holdings Valuation

Is 1117 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1117 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1117 (HK$0.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$2.74)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1117 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1117?

Key metric: As 1117 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 1117. This is calculated by dividing 1117's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 1117's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.4x
SalesCN¥13.24b
Market CapCN¥5.89b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 1117's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 1117 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.5x
9858 China Youran Dairy Group
0.2x8.9%HK$4.8b
1432 China Shengmu Organic Milk
0.4xn/aHK$1.4b
875 Congyu Intelligent Agricultural Holdings
1.1xn/aHK$716.8m
1431 YuanShengTai Dairy Farm
0.3xn/aHK$745.8m
1117 China Modern Dairy Holdings
0.4x7.1%HK$6.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 1117 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the peer average (0.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 1117's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Food Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
3838 China Starch Holdings
0.08xn/aUS$128.75m
3999 DaChan Food (Asia)
0.09xn/aUS$73.12m
841 Asia Cassava Resources Holdings
0.06xn/aUS$9.47m
359 China Haisheng Juice Holdings
0.04xn/aUS$8.06m
1117 0.4xIndustry Avg. 0.5xNo. of Companies14PS00.61.21.82.43+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 1117 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the Hong Kong Food industry average (0.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1117's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1117 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.4x
Fair PS Ratio0.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 1117 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1117 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$0.80
HK$0.89
+11.6%
16.2%HK$1.07HK$0.71n/a6
Nov ’25HK$0.85
HK$0.89
+5.0%
16.2%HK$1.07HK$0.71n/a6
Oct ’25HK$0.98
HK$0.89
-8.9%
16.2%HK$1.07HK$0.71n/a6
Sep ’25HK$0.66
HK$0.84
+26.5%
15.6%HK$1.02HK$0.66n/a6
Aug ’25HK$0.66
HK$0.84
+27.8%
15.4%HK$1.00HK$0.65n/a6
Jul ’25HK$0.70
HK$0.84
+20.5%
15.4%HK$1.00HK$0.65n/a6
Jun ’25HK$0.76
HK$0.96
+26.6%
31.7%HK$1.65HK$0.65n/a7
May ’25HK$0.65
HK$0.96
+48.0%
31.7%HK$1.65HK$0.65n/a7
Apr ’25HK$0.65
HK$1.06
+62.9%
28.8%HK$1.64HK$0.75n/a9
Mar ’25HK$0.69
HK$1.09
+58.5%
26.1%HK$1.65HK$0.81n/a9
Feb ’25HK$0.64
HK$1.15
+79.4%
22.7%HK$1.67HK$0.82n/a9
Jan ’25HK$0.74
HK$1.15
+55.2%
22.7%HK$1.67HK$0.82n/a9
Dec ’24HK$0.77
HK$1.14
+48.1%
22.6%HK$1.65HK$0.81n/a9
Nov ’24HK$0.79
HK$1.12
+42.0%
23.1%HK$1.65HK$0.80HK$0.859
Oct ’24HK$0.77
HK$1.12
+45.8%
23.1%HK$1.65HK$0.80HK$0.989
Sep ’24HK$0.74
HK$1.20
+61.6%
26.1%HK$1.89HK$0.90HK$0.669
Aug ’24HK$0.82
HK$1.24
+51.1%
24.4%HK$1.91HK$0.94HK$0.669
Jul ’24HK$0.82
HK$1.36
+65.6%
18.7%HK$1.94HK$1.16HK$0.709
Jun ’24HK$0.91
HK$1.36
+49.3%
18.7%HK$1.94HK$1.16HK$0.769
May ’24HK$0.97
HK$1.40
+43.9%
18.4%HK$2.00HK$1.20HK$0.659
Apr ’24HK$1.01
HK$1.45
+43.7%
17.4%HK$2.00HK$1.20HK$0.658
Mar ’24HK$1.11
HK$1.54
+38.8%
15.7%HK$2.00HK$1.24HK$0.697
Feb ’24HK$1.16
HK$1.69
+45.6%
33.7%HK$3.03HK$1.28HK$0.647
Jan ’24HK$0.99
HK$1.69
+70.6%
33.7%HK$3.03HK$1.28HK$0.747
Dec ’23HK$0.96
HK$1.65
+72.3%
34.2%HK$2.98HK$1.26HK$0.777
Nov ’23HK$0.82
HK$1.63
+98.8%
34.2%HK$2.93HK$1.23HK$0.797

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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