China Youran Dairy Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 9858 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

9858 (HK$3.33) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$5.71)

Is 9858 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 9858 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow

Simply Wall St

HK$5.71

Fair Value

41.7% undervalued

Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: 9858 (HK$3.33) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$5.71)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 9858 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9858?

Key metric: As 9858 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 9858. This is calculated by dividing 9858's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 9858's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.6x
Sales	CN¥20.33b
Market Cap	CN¥11.87b

9858 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	7.5x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 9858's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 9858 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.6x
1117 China Modern Dairy Holdings	0.7x	4.88%	HK$10.1b
1432 China Shengmu Organic Milk	0.7x	n/a	HK$2.5b
1431 YuanShengTai Dairy Farm	0.5x	n/a	HK$1.4b
3839 Chia Tai Enterprises International	0.6x	n/a	HK$2.3b
9858 China Youran Dairy Group	0.6x	6.82%	HK$13.0b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 9858 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the peer average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 9858's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Food Industry?

8 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
3838 China Starch Holdings	0.1x	n/a	US$154.86m
3999 DaChan Food (Asia)	0.1x	n/a	US$80.98m
875 Congyu Intelligent Agricultural Holdings	0.1x	n/a	US$19.60m
841 Asia Cassava Resources Holdings	0.07x	n/a	US$9.09m

8 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 9858 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the Hong Kong Food industry average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 9858's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

9858 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.6x
Fair PS Ratio	1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 9858 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 9858 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$3.33	HK$5.54 +66.31%	12.51%	HK$6.73	HK$4.56	n/a	5
Sep ’26	HK$3.75	HK$5.54 +47.68%	12.51%	HK$6.73	HK$4.56	n/a	5
Aug ’26	HK$3.59	HK$3.63 +1.17%	24.26%	HK$4.58	HK$2.22	n/a	5
Jul ’26	HK$2.63	HK$2.97 +12.83%	16.57%	HK$3.50	HK$2.22	n/a	4
Jun ’26	HK$2.67	HK$2.97 +11.14%	16.57%	HK$3.50	HK$2.22	n/a	4
May ’26	HK$2.37	HK$2.97 +25.21%	16.57%	HK$3.50	HK$2.22	n/a	4
Apr ’26	HK$2.48	HK$2.97 +19.66%	16.57%	HK$3.50	HK$2.22	n/a	4
Mar ’26	HK$2.17	HK$1.97 -9.06%	13.61%	HK$2.22	HK$1.60	n/a	3
Feb ’26	HK$1.96	HK$1.97 +0.68%	13.61%	HK$2.22	HK$1.60	n/a	3
Jan ’26	HK$1.65	HK$1.85 +12.12%	13.51%	HK$2.10	HK$1.60	n/a	2
Dec ’25	HK$1.37	HK$1.85 +35.04%	13.51%	HK$2.10	HK$1.60	n/a	2
Nov ’25	HK$1.34	HK$1.97 +47.26%	13.61%	HK$2.22	HK$1.60	n/a	3
Oct ’25	HK$1.48	HK$1.97 +33.33%	13.61%	HK$2.22	HK$1.60	n/a	3
Sep ’25	HK$1.15	HK$1.97 +71.59%	13.61%	HK$2.22	HK$1.60	HK$3.75	3
Aug ’25	HK$1.12	HK$2.06 +83.63%	10.55%	HK$2.22	HK$1.75	HK$3.59	3
Jul ’25	HK$1.19	HK$2.06 +72.83%	10.55%	HK$2.22	HK$1.75	HK$2.63	3
Jun ’25	HK$1.18	HK$2.06 +74.29%	10.55%	HK$2.22	HK$1.75	HK$2.67	3
May ’25	HK$1.20	HK$2.06 +71.39%	10.55%	HK$2.22	HK$1.75	HK$2.37	3
Apr ’25	HK$1.22	HK$2.10 +72.13%	23.15%	HK$2.85	HK$1.60	HK$2.48	4
Mar ’25	HK$1.27	HK$2.29 +80.12%	23.96%	HK$2.85	HK$1.60	HK$2.17	4
Feb ’25	HK$1.18	HK$2.29 +93.86%	23.96%	HK$2.85	HK$1.60	HK$1.96	4
Jan ’25	HK$1.47	HK$2.29 +55.61%	23.96%	HK$2.85	HK$1.60	HK$1.65	4
Dec ’24	HK$1.44	HK$2.29 +58.85%	23.96%	HK$2.85	HK$1.60	HK$1.37	4
Nov ’24	HK$1.50	HK$2.29 +52.50%	23.96%	HK$2.85	HK$1.60	HK$1.34	4
Oct ’24	HK$1.45	HK$2.77 +91.03%	39.08%	HK$4.70	HK$1.60	HK$1.48	5
Sep ’24	HK$1.46	HK$2.94 +101.37%	31.81%	HK$4.70	HK$1.90	HK$1.15	5

AnalystConsensusTarget

Consensus Narrative from 5 Analysts

HK$5.54

Fair Value

39.9% undervalued

Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/09/13 18:57
End of Day Share Price	2025/09/12 00:00
Earnings	2025/06/30
Annual Earnings	2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

China Youran Dairy Group Limited is covered by 12 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Xia Sheng	Citic Securities Co., Ltd.
Yuan Xue	Citic Securities Co., Ltd.
Tiffany Feng	Citigroup Inc