China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited

SEHK:2319 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$69.2b

China Mengniu Dairy Valuation

Is 2319 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2319 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2319 (HK$17.66) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$39.76)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2319 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2319?

Key metric: As 2319 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2319. This is calculated by dividing 2319's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2319's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.4x
EarningsCN¥4.23b
Market CapCN¥65.00b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2319's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2319 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13x
322 Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding
15.6x9.1%HK$55.9b
288 WH Group
11x8.0%HK$84.9b
151 Want Want China Holdings
12.1x3.9%HK$51.7b
6186 China Feihe
13.1x8.1%HK$49.9b
2319 China Mengniu Dairy
15.4x10.6%HK$69.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2319 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.4x) compared to the peer average (13x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2319's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Food Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
809 Global Bio-chem Technology Group
0.2xn/aUS$114.26m
No more companies available in this PE range
2319 15.4xIndustry Avg. 14.4xNo. of Companies6PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2319 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.4x) compared to the Hong Kong Food industry average (14.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2319's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2319 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.4x
Fair PE Ratio17.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2319 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2319 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$17.66
HK$19.61
+11.0%
18.8%HK$27.67HK$12.99n/a25
Dec ’25HK$16.98
HK$19.31
+13.7%
20.3%HK$27.87HK$13.00n/a26
Nov ’25HK$17.68
HK$19.85
+12.3%
21.9%HK$30.07HK$13.22n/a27
Oct ’25HK$18.70
HK$19.26
+3.0%
22.3%HK$30.51HK$13.26n/a27
Sep ’25HK$13.28
HK$19.78
+49.0%
25.1%HK$33.55HK$13.40n/a27
Aug ’25HK$12.84
HK$23.37
+82.0%
19.9%HK$33.01HK$13.08n/a27
Jul ’25HK$14.00
HK$24.90
+77.8%
18.1%HK$32.78HK$16.59n/a27
Jun ’25HK$14.36
HK$25.09
+74.7%
17.8%HK$32.90HK$16.65n/a27
May ’25HK$16.42
HK$25.29
+54.0%
18.1%HK$33.00HK$16.70n/a26
Apr ’25HK$16.80
HK$27.93
+66.2%
19.8%HK$41.95HK$18.22n/a27
Mar ’25HK$19.66
HK$32.81
+66.9%
19.5%HK$48.97HK$21.06n/a28
Feb ’25HK$17.68
HK$33.20
+87.8%
19.4%HK$49.32HK$21.21n/a28
Jan ’25HK$21.00
HK$36.66
+74.6%
14.5%HK$49.72HK$22.99n/a28
Dec ’24HK$23.65
HK$38.39
+62.3%
11.6%HK$49.28HK$30.97HK$16.9828
Nov ’24HK$25.85
HK$37.81
+46.3%
10.8%HK$48.18HK$31.07HK$17.6828
Oct ’24HK$26.25
HK$37.92
+44.5%
10.9%HK$48.33HK$31.16HK$18.7028
Sep ’24HK$26.40
HK$40.01
+51.6%
10.3%HK$48.71HK$31.41HK$13.2828
Aug ’24HK$28.35
HK$41.01
+44.7%
7.6%HK$45.62HK$33.94HK$12.8428
Jul ’24HK$29.50
HK$41.75
+41.5%
7.0%HK$46.87HK$36.07HK$14.0027
Jun ’24HK$29.45
HK$42.50
+44.3%
6.8%HK$47.76HK$36.77HK$14.3627
May ’24HK$31.55
HK$43.74
+38.6%
7.4%HK$50.54HK$36.47HK$16.4227
Apr ’24HK$32.20
HK$44.55
+38.4%
8.3%HK$51.57HK$36.71HK$16.8024
Mar ’24HK$36.30
HK$47.58
+31.1%
8.0%HK$53.87HK$38.90HK$19.6628
Feb ’24HK$38.85
HK$48.78
+25.5%
9.9%HK$59.89HK$35.99HK$17.6828
Jan ’24HK$35.40
HK$46.74
+32.0%
10.7%HK$57.67HK$34.66HK$21.0028
Dec ’23HK$35.35
HK$45.68
+29.2%
10.7%HK$56.19HK$33.77HK$23.6528

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/20 18:10
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited is covered by 62 analysts. 28 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Hong Xing PanABCI Securities Company Limited
Vineet Kulbandu SharmaBarclays
Y. ChenBNP Paribas Securities (Asia)