China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited

SEHK:2319 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$66.3b

China Mengniu Dairy Valuation

Is 2319 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2319 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2319 (HK$16.92) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$39.47)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2319 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2319?

Key metric: As 2319 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2319. This is calculated by dividing 2319's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2319's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.6x
EarningsCN¥4.23b
Market CapCN¥61.70b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2319's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2319 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.8x
322 Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding
17.1x9.1%HK$61.8b
151 Want Want China Holdings
13.1x5.0%HK$56.2b
288 WH Group
11.6x7.7%HK$89.7b
6186 China Feihe
13.5x7.4%HK$51.9b
2319 China Mengniu Dairy
14.6x11.1%HK$66.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2319 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.6x) compared to the peer average (13.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2319's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Food Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
809 Global Bio-chem Technology Group
0.2xn/aUS$85.81m
No more companies available in this PE range
2319 14.6xIndustry Avg. 14.4xNo. of Companies8PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2319 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.6x) compared to the Hong Kong Food industry average (14.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2319's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2319 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.6x
Fair PE Ratio17.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2319 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2319 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$16.92
HK$19.69
+16.3%
21.8%HK$29.63HK$13.03n/a27
Nov ’25HK$17.68
HK$19.85
+12.3%
21.9%HK$30.07HK$13.22n/a27
Oct ’25HK$18.70
HK$19.26
+3.0%
22.3%HK$30.51HK$13.26n/a27
Sep ’25HK$13.28
HK$19.78
+49.0%
25.1%HK$33.55HK$13.40n/a27
Aug ’25HK$12.84
HK$23.37
+82.0%
19.9%HK$33.01HK$13.08n/a27
Jul ’25HK$14.00
HK$24.90
+77.8%
18.1%HK$32.78HK$16.59n/a27
Jun ’25HK$14.36
HK$25.09
+74.7%
17.8%HK$32.90HK$16.65n/a27
May ’25HK$16.42
HK$25.29
+54.0%
18.1%HK$33.00HK$16.70n/a26
Apr ’25HK$16.80
HK$27.93
+66.2%
19.8%HK$41.95HK$18.22n/a27
Mar ’25HK$19.66
HK$32.81
+66.9%
19.5%HK$48.97HK$21.06n/a28
Feb ’25HK$17.68
HK$33.20
+87.8%
19.4%HK$49.32HK$21.21n/a28
Jan ’25HK$21.00
HK$36.66
+74.6%
14.5%HK$49.72HK$22.99n/a28
Dec ’24HK$23.65
HK$38.39
+62.3%
11.6%HK$49.28HK$30.97n/a28
Nov ’24HK$25.85
HK$37.81
+46.3%
10.8%HK$48.18HK$31.07HK$17.6828
Oct ’24HK$26.25
HK$37.92
+44.5%
10.9%HK$48.33HK$31.16HK$18.7028
Sep ’24HK$26.40
HK$40.01
+51.6%
10.3%HK$48.71HK$31.41HK$13.2828
Aug ’24HK$28.35
HK$41.01
+44.7%
7.6%HK$45.62HK$33.94HK$12.8428
Jul ’24HK$29.50
HK$41.75
+41.5%
7.0%HK$46.87HK$36.07HK$14.0027
Jun ’24HK$29.45
HK$42.50
+44.3%
6.8%HK$47.76HK$36.77HK$14.3627
May ’24HK$31.55
HK$43.74
+38.6%
7.4%HK$50.54HK$36.47HK$16.4227
Apr ’24HK$32.20
HK$44.55
+38.4%
8.3%HK$51.57HK$36.71HK$16.8024
Mar ’24HK$36.30
HK$47.58
+31.1%
8.0%HK$53.87HK$38.90HK$19.6628
Feb ’24HK$38.85
HK$48.78
+25.5%
9.9%HK$59.89HK$35.99HK$17.6828
Jan ’24HK$35.40
HK$46.74
+32.0%
10.7%HK$57.67HK$34.66HK$21.0028
Dec ’23HK$35.35
HK$45.68
+29.2%
10.7%HK$56.19HK$33.77HK$23.6528
Nov ’23HK$27.30
HK$46.13
+69.0%
11.1%HK$55.37HK$30.30HK$25.8528

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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