China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited

SEHK:2319 Stock Report

Mkt Cap: HK$152.3b

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

China Mengniu Dairy Valuation

Is 2319 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2319?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

2319 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA24.8x
PEG Ratio2.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2319's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2319 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.2x
322 Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding
20.7x19.0%HK$72.8b
288 WH Group
7.4x2.3%HK$68.0b
151 Want Want China Holdings
14x8.1%HK$60.3b
6186 China Feihe
10.7x13.3%HK$67.3b
2319 China Mengniu Dairy
22.4x10.5%HK$152.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2319 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x) compared to the peer average (13.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2319's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Food Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a19.6%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2319 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x) compared to the Hong Kong Food industry average (11x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2319's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2319 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio22.4x
Fair PE Ratio17.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2319 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.7x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2319 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2319 (HK$38.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$59.79)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2319 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2319 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$38.50
HK$48.79
+26.7%
9.8%HK$60.06HK$36.04n/a28
Jan ’24HK$35.40
HK$46.76
+32.1%
10.7%HK$57.76HK$34.66n/a28
Dec ’23HK$35.35
HK$45.70
+29.3%
10.6%HK$56.27HK$33.77n/a28
Nov ’23HK$27.30
HK$46.12
+68.9%
11.1%HK$55.45HK$30.30n/a28
Oct ’23HK$31.15
HK$48.17
+54.6%
8.2%HK$56.82HK$42.31n/a27
Sep ’23HK$34.60
HK$49.07
+41.8%
7.9%HK$58.61HK$43.64n/a27
Aug ’23HK$36.00
HK$51.09
+41.9%
8.3%HK$59.03HK$41.44n/a25
Jul ’23HK$39.15
HK$52.20
+33.3%
8.4%HK$60.25HK$41.71n/a25
Jun ’23HK$40.40
HK$52.89
+30.9%
8.1%HK$60.51HK$41.89n/a25
May ’23HK$42.60
HK$51.83
+21.7%
7.8%HK$57.67HK$42.29n/a23
Apr ’23HK$43.00
HK$54.17
+26.0%
8.0%HK$59.80HK$43.85n/a24
Mar ’23HK$50.80
HK$56.13
+10.5%
7.0%HK$61.05HK$44.25n/a26
Feb ’23HK$46.00
HK$55.16
+19.9%
9.0%HK$60.40HK$35.81HK$38.8526
Jan ’23HK$44.20
HK$55.35
+25.2%
9.0%HK$60.48HK$36.56HK$35.4025
Dec ’22HK$43.50
HK$55.41
+27.4%
9.1%HK$60.96HK$36.51HK$35.3525
Nov ’22HK$49.10
HK$54.82
+11.6%
10.7%HK$60.76HK$36.25HK$27.3027
Oct ’22HK$50.15
HK$53.57
+6.8%
12.3%HK$60.32HK$35.76HK$31.1529
Sep ’22HK$46.15
HK$53.00
+14.8%
12.5%HK$60.13HK$35.65HK$34.6028
Aug ’22HK$42.15
HK$52.70
+25.0%
10.4%HK$60.36HK$35.61HK$36.0026
Jul ’22HK$46.95
HK$52.29
+11.4%
10.1%HK$59.92HK$35.73HK$39.1527
Jun ’22HK$46.25
HK$52.68
+13.9%
10.3%HK$60.00HK$36.26HK$40.4028
May ’22HK$41.60
HK$52.19
+25.5%
10.7%HK$60.34HK$35.71HK$42.6027
Apr ’22HK$44.95
HK$50.72
+12.8%
11.6%HK$59.83HK$35.24HK$43.0028
Mar ’22HK$43.05
HK$49.02
+13.9%
16.9%HK$59.74HK$24.00HK$50.8028
Feb ’22HK$46.40
HK$48.99
+5.6%
17.0%HK$60.07HK$24.13HK$46.0027

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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