China Coal Energy Company Limited

SZSC:1898 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$164.7b

China Coal Energy Valuation

Is 1898 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1898 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1898 (HK$9.58) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$22.52)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1898 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1898?

Key metric: As 1898 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1898. This is calculated by dividing 1898's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1898's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7x
EarningsCN¥16.79b
Market CapCN¥153.32b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1898's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1898 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13x
1171 Yankuang Energy Group
5.4x-5.5%HK$132.4b
1088 China Shenhua Energy
10.4x-0.7%HK$814.6b
1277 Kinetic Development Group
4.2xn/aHK$11.8b
1164 CGN Mining
32.1x25.8%HK$13.8b
1898 China Coal Energy
7x1.8%HK$164.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1898 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the peer average (13x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1898's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Oil and Gas Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
276 Mongolia Energy
0.08xn/aUS$17.64m
663 King Stone Energy Group
1.3xn/aUS$15.51m
No more companies available in this PE range
1898 7.0xIndustry Avg. 9.4xNo. of Companies5PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1898 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the Hong Kong Oil and Gas industry average (9.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1898's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1898 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7x
Fair PE Ratio8.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1898 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1898 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$9.58
HK$10.12
+5.6%
11.3%HK$11.82HK$8.36n/a9
Nov ’25HK$9.80
HK$10.26
+4.7%
11.5%HK$12.01HK$8.49n/a9
Oct ’25HK$9.70
HK$9.96
+2.6%
11.7%HK$11.05HK$8.08n/a9
Sep ’25HK$9.32
HK$10.02
+7.5%
10.6%HK$11.07HK$8.51n/a9
Aug ’25HK$7.92
HK$9.60
+21.2%
13.3%HK$11.46HK$7.89n/a10
Jul ’25HK$9.12
HK$9.58
+5.1%
13.2%HK$11.45HK$7.88n/a10
Jun ’25HK$9.85
HK$9.50
-3.5%
13.9%HK$11.50HK$7.92n/a10
May ’25HK$7.90
HK$8.84
+11.9%
10.3%HK$10.16HK$7.29n/a10
Apr ’25HK$7.62
HK$8.57
+12.5%
15.2%HK$10.19HK$5.75n/a10
Mar ’25HK$8.51
HK$8.11
-4.7%
14.5%HK$10.26HK$5.79n/a10
Feb ’25HK$8.37
HK$7.75
-7.4%
19.8%HK$10.22HK$4.75n/a10
Jan ’25HK$7.10
HK$6.98
-1.7%
22.5%HK$9.65HK$4.78n/a10
Dec ’24HK$6.74
HK$6.85
+1.6%
22.0%HK$9.24HK$4.69n/a10
Nov ’24HK$6.06
HK$6.82
+12.6%
22.1%HK$9.20HK$4.67HK$9.8010
Oct ’24HK$6.14
HK$6.91
+12.6%
22.6%HK$9.13HK$4.68HK$9.7010
Sep ’24HK$5.35
HK$6.99
+30.6%
21.8%HK$9.17HK$4.70HK$9.3211
Aug ’24HK$5.62
HK$7.15
+27.2%
20.3%HK$9.26HK$4.28HK$7.9211
Jul ’24HK$5.82
HK$7.16
+22.9%
20.4%HK$9.56HK$4.29HK$9.1211
Jun ’24HK$6.01
HK$7.39
+22.9%
20.1%HK$9.85HK$4.42HK$9.8511
May ’24HK$6.72
HK$7.45
+10.8%
20.2%HK$9.96HK$4.47HK$7.9011
Apr ’24HK$5.95
HK$7.52
+26.5%
20.5%HK$10.00HK$4.49HK$7.6211
Mar ’24HK$6.23
HK$7.89
+26.7%
23.1%HK$10.40HK$4.99HK$8.5110
Feb ’24HK$6.34
HK$8.39
+32.3%
20.9%HK$10.60HK$5.08HK$8.3710
Jan ’24HK$6.35
HK$8.53
+34.4%
14.0%HK$10.00HK$6.21HK$7.1010
Dec ’23HK$7.12
HK$8.53
+19.8%
14.0%HK$10.00HK$6.21HK$6.7410
Nov ’23HK$5.96
HK$8.32
+39.6%
14.1%HK$9.64HK$6.20HK$6.0610

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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