China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation

SHSC:386 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$738.0b

China Petroleum & Chemical Valuation

Is 386 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 386 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
HK$14.87
Fair Value
70.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
16
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: 386 (HK$4.35) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$14.87)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 386 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 386?

Key metric: As 386 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 386. This is calculated by dividing 386's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 386's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10x
EarningsCN¥49.36b
Market CapCN¥687.90b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 386's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 386 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.1x
857 PetroChina
6.4x-3.3%HK$1.5t
1088 China Shenhua Energy
10x-2.3%HK$780.5b
883 CNOOC
5.8x-2.0%HK$915.7b
1898 China Coal Energy
6.3x2.9%HK$141.1b
386 China Petroleum & Chemical
10x10.3%HK$738.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 386 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x) compared to the peer average (7.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 386's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Oil and Gas Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
663 King Stone Energy Group
1.3xn/aUS$15.51m
276 Mongolia Energy
0.06xn/aUS$13.30m
No more companies available in this PE range
386 10.0xIndustry Avg. 8.6xNo. of Companies5PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 386 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x) compared to the Hong Kong Oil and Gas industry average (8.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 386's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

386 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10x
Fair PE Ratio10.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 386 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 386 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$4.35
HK$5.24
+20.6%
10.1%HK$6.10HK$4.38n/a16
Feb ’26HK$4.28
HK$5.34
+24.7%
10.1%HK$6.15HK$4.42n/a16
Jan ’26HK$4.45
HK$5.36
+20.5%
10.3%HK$6.08HK$4.38n/a16
Dec ’25HK$4.16
HK$5.42
+30.2%
10.0%HK$6.13HK$4.42n/a17
Nov ’25HK$4.41
HK$5.51
+24.9%
9.2%HK$6.23HK$4.60n/a17
Oct ’25HK$4.84
HK$5.61
+15.9%
11.7%HK$6.89HK$4.53n/a16
Sep ’25HK$5.30
HK$5.62
+6.0%
12.0%HK$6.84HK$4.60n/a15
Aug ’25HK$4.96
HK$5.47
+10.3%
11.5%HK$6.76HK$4.57n/a15
Jul ’25HK$5.06
HK$5.42
+7.1%
11.8%HK$6.77HK$4.58n/a15
Jun ’25HK$4.96
HK$5.39
+8.6%
12.3%HK$6.81HK$4.44n/a15
May ’25HK$4.72
HK$5.36
+13.6%
13.5%HK$6.82HK$4.20n/a13
Apr ’25HK$4.44
HK$5.21
+17.4%
11.9%HK$6.38HK$4.20n/a13
Mar ’25HK$4.33
HK$5.17
+19.4%
11.7%HK$6.41HK$4.09n/a13
Feb ’25HK$4.06
HK$5.23
+28.9%
11.3%HK$6.41HK$4.09HK$4.2814
Jan ’25HK$4.09
HK$5.33
+30.3%
11.0%HK$6.47HK$4.33HK$4.4514
Dec ’24HK$4.01
HK$5.51
+37.4%
11.4%HK$6.66HK$4.32HK$4.1614
Nov ’24HK$4.02
HK$5.41
+34.6%
11.1%HK$6.50HK$4.24HK$4.4114
Oct ’24HK$4.28
HK$5.45
+27.5%
10.4%HK$6.70HK$4.33HK$4.8415
Sep ’24HK$4.59
HK$5.45
+18.8%
10.5%HK$6.55HK$4.06HK$5.3016
Aug ’24HK$4.35
HK$5.54
+27.3%
11.7%HK$6.64HK$3.98HK$4.9616
Jul ’24HK$4.59
HK$5.47
+19.2%
12.0%HK$6.60HK$3.95HK$5.0616
Jun ’24HK$4.95
HK$5.46
+10.3%
13.9%HK$6.75HK$3.93HK$4.9616
May ’24HK$5.13
HK$5.41
+5.5%
13.8%HK$6.91HK$4.03HK$4.7216
Apr ’24HK$4.64
HK$4.75
+2.5%
12.6%HK$5.50HK$3.41HK$4.4415
Mar ’24HK$4.11
HK$4.52
+10.0%
14.4%HK$5.48HK$2.94HK$4.3316
Feb ’24HK$4.29
HK$4.61
+7.5%
15.4%HK$5.62HK$3.02HK$4.0616
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 16 Analysts
HK$5.24
Fair Value
17.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
16
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/16 04:07
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/14 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation is covered by 58 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Scott Lee DarlingBarclays
Bradley WayBNP Paribas Securities (Asia)
Cho Ming LauBOCI Research Ltd.