CNOOC (SEHK:883): Revisiting Valuation After a Recent Share Price Climb

CNOOC (SEHK:883) has quietly outperformed this year, and that kind of steady move often slips under the radar. With the share price still below many valuation estimates, investors are revisiting the long term case.

See our latest analysis for CNOOC.

The recent climb to around HK$20.8 follows a solid 90 day share price return near 10 percent. At the same time, a far stronger multiyear total shareholder return suggests momentum is still broadly constructive rather than exhausted.

If CNOOC has you rethinking energy exposure, it could be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other under the radar growth stories with skin in the game.

With the shares still trading below analyst targets and a hefty implied discount to intrinsic value, investors now face a familiar dilemma: is CNOOC genuinely undervalued, or is the market already baking in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 7.4% Undervalued

With CNOOC closing at HK$20.8 against a narrative fair value near HK$22.46, the story leans toward upside and rests on specific growth levers.

The analysts have a consensus price target of HK$21.534 for CNOOC based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of HK$27.64, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just HK$10.61.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how modest growth, subtle margin shifts and a higher future earnings multiple can still justify more upside? The projected cash flow path may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $22.46 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the story could change if global energy transition policies accelerate, or if regional regulatory and environmental disruptions hit CNOOC’s China focused offshore assets.

Find out about the key risks to this CNOOC narrative.

Build Your Own CNOOC Narrative

If this view does not quite fit your own, or you prefer digging into the numbers yourself, you can design a fresh narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your CNOOC research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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