CNOOC (SEHK:883): Assessing Valuation After Q3 2025 Earnings Decline and Recent Leadership Changes

CNOOC (SEHK:883) just released its financial results for the first nine months of 2025, showing lower sales and net income compared to last year. This update comes shortly after recent leadership changes, drawing investor focus.

See our latest analysis for CNOOC.

Despite a dip in sales and net income this quarter, CNOOC’s share price has been building momentum, rising 3.5% over the past day and boasting a 1-year total shareholder return of 21%. Leadership changes and the earnings update appear to be energizing investor sentiment. The longer-term trajectory remains impressive with a 159% total return over three years.

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With shares near their all-time highs and fundamentals under pressure, investors are left to consider whether CNOOC is trading below its intrinsic value or if the market has already taken future growth prospects into account.

Most Popular Narrative: 8.9% Undervalued

With CNOOC trading at HK$20.46 and the most widely followed narrative projecting fair value at HK$22.46, the stock appears to be priced below what analysts expect based on long-term business drivers.

“Aggressive reserve expansion, efficient project execution, and low-cost operations drive sustainable production growth and protect margins across market cycles. Favorable policy, strong regional demand, and disciplined capital allocation underpin stable revenues, reduced risk, and attractive shareholder returns.”

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what future growth rate is fueling this bullish outlook? Beneath this valuation are foundational assumptions about profit margins, revenue acceleration, and a future earnings multiple not often seen in this sector. Something in these numbers justifies paying up for CNOOC. Can you guess what it is? Dive in to see what quantifies their optimism.

Result: Fair Value of $22.46 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, policy shifts toward renewables or steeper declines in global gas prices could challenge CNOOC's bullish outlook and test its long-term growth thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this CNOOC narrative.

Build Your Own CNOOC Narrative

If you have a different take or want to dig deeper into the numbers yourself, you can craft your own story in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your CNOOC research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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