PetroChina Company Limited Beat Revenue Forecasts By 6.8%: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

A week ago, PetroChina Company Limited (HKG:857) came out with a strong set of half-year numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat expectations with revenues of CN¥697b arriving 6.8% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were CN¥0.20, 2.6% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, PetroChina's twelve analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be CN¥2.86t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 4.5% to CN¥0.83 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥2.81t and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.83 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for PetroChina

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of HK$8.20, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PetroChina at HK$10.24 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$4.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the PetroChina's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that PetroChina's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.3% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 0.2% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that PetroChina is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$8.20, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on PetroChina. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for PetroChina going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - PetroChina has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.