Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd.

SHSC:2611 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$168.3b

Guotai Junan Securities Valuation

Is 2611 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2611 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2611 (HK$11.54) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$8.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2611 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2611?

Key metric: As 2611 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2611. This is calculated by dividing 2611's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2611's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.6x
EarningsCN¥9.56b
Market CapCN¥156.55b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2611's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2611 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.4x
6066 CSC Financial
16.2x38.6%HK$203.5b
3908 China International Capital
16.2x25.6%HK$137.5b
1456 Guolian Securities
33.8x44.8%HK$33.4b
1375 Central China Securities
43.5xn/aHK$18.9b
2611 Guotai Junan Securities
17.6x12.9%HK$156.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2611 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the peer average (27.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2611's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Capital Markets Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
2799 China CITIC Financial Asset Management
4.2x-29.2%US$6.60b
8098 CL Group (Holdings)
3.7xn/aUS$11.02m
No more companies available in this PE range
2611 17.6xIndustry Avg. 20.9xNo. of Companies7PE020406080100+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2611 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the Hong Kong Capital Markets industry average (20.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2611's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2611 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.6x
Fair PE Ratio13x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2611 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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