China Education Group Holdings Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 839 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

839 (HK$3.78) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$29.83)

Is 839 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 839 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 839 (HK$3.78) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$29.83)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 839 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 839?

Key metric: As 839 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 839. This is calculated by dividing 839's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 839's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	6.5x
Earnings	CN¥1.47b
Market Cap	CN¥9.55b

839 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.3x
PEG Ratio	0.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 839's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 839 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	13.4x
1969 China Chunlai Education Group	6.6x	n/a	HK$5.3b
667 China East Education Holdings	16.1x	15.5%	HK$5.9b
2469 Fenbi	12.6x	19.5%	HK$5.2b
1773 Tianli International Holdings	18.2x	30.0%	HK$8.8b
839 China Education Group Holdings	6.5x	15.5%	HK$10.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 839 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.5x) compared to the peer average (13.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 839's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Consumer Services Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies available in this PE range

0 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 839 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.5x) compared to the Hong Kong Consumer Services industry average (6.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 839's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

839 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6.5x
Fair PE Ratio	12x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 839 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 839 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$3.78	HK$7.24 +91.6%	29.8%	HK$11.51	HK$2.06	n/a	13
Nov ’25	HK$4.94	HK$7.41 +50.0%	29.1%	HK$11.78	HK$2.12	n/a	14
Oct ’25	HK$5.46	HK$7.41 +35.8%	29.1%	HK$11.78	HK$2.12	n/a	14
Sep ’25	HK$4.40	HK$7.34 +66.8%	29.0%	HK$11.64	HK$2.14	n/a	14
Aug ’25	HK$3.99	HK$7.27 +82.1%	29.0%	HK$11.51	HK$2.12	n/a	14
Jul ’25	HK$4.51	HK$7.23 +60.3%	27.9%	HK$11.43	HK$2.10	n/a	15
Jun ’25	HK$5.07	HK$7.25 +42.9%	28.0%	HK$11.46	HK$2.11	n/a	15
May ’25	HK$4.47	HK$7.11 +59.0%	29.8%	HK$11.51	HK$2.10	n/a	15
Apr ’25	HK$4.19	HK$8.10 +93.3%	31.5%	HK$12.39	HK$2.10	n/a	15
Mar ’25	HK$4.71	HK$8.36 +77.5%	32.5%	HK$12.52	HK$2.12	n/a	15
Feb ’25	HK$3.96	HK$8.36 +111.1%	32.5%	HK$12.52	HK$2.12	n/a	15
Jan ’25	HK$4.90	HK$8.66 +76.8%	31.2%	HK$12.63	HK$2.14	n/a	15
Dec ’24	HK$4.77	HK$9.71 +103.5%	19.5%	HK$12.55	HK$5.71	n/a	15
Nov ’24	HK$6.53	HK$11.29 +72.9%	25.6%	HK$20.19	HK$8.68	HK$4.94	15
Oct ’24	HK$6.37	HK$11.32 +77.8%	25.3%	HK$20.17	HK$8.67	HK$5.46	15
Sep ’24	HK$6.67	HK$11.42 +71.3%	24.4%	HK$20.37	HK$8.76	HK$4.40	16
Aug ’24	HK$7.07	HK$11.37 +60.9%	24.6%	HK$20.46	HK$8.80	HK$3.99	16
Jul ’24	HK$6.10	HK$11.34 +85.9%	23.9%	HK$20.37	HK$8.76	HK$4.51	17
Jun ’24	HK$6.40	HK$11.53 +80.2%	24.5%	HK$20.86	HK$8.77	HK$5.07	17
May ’24	HK$6.96	HK$12.39 +78.0%	23.3%	HK$21.40	HK$9.50	HK$4.47	17
Apr ’24	HK$7.56	HK$13.06 +72.8%	21.9%	HK$22.14	HK$9.83	HK$4.19	17
Mar ’24	HK$9.54	HK$13.18 +38.1%	21.5%	HK$22.15	HK$9.84	HK$4.71	17
Feb ’24	HK$12.40	HK$13.03 +5.1%	22.2%	HK$22.49	HK$9.99	HK$3.96	17
Jan ’24	HK$10.10	HK$11.79 +16.7%	23.7%	HK$21.93	HK$9.33	HK$4.90	19
Dec ’23	HK$8.22	HK$11.44 +39.1%	26.0%	HK$21.46	HK$7.51	HK$4.77	18
Nov ’23	HK$4.82	HK$10.62 +120.2%	32.3%	HK$22.94	HK$7.35	HK$6.53	19

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.