Melco International Development Valuation
Is 200 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
5/6Valuation Score 5/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 200 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: 200 (HK$4.53) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$39.37)
Significantly Below Fair Value: 200 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 200?
Key metric: As 200 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is 200's PS Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PS Ratio | 0.2x |
| Sales | HK$34.26b |
| Market Cap | HK$6.87b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 2.1x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 9.3x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does 200's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 2.7x | ||
2536 Palasino Holdings | 5.9x | n/a | HK$3.3b |
880 SJM Holdings | 0.7x | 8.4% | HK$18.3b |
3918 NagaCorp | 3.2x | 10.5% | HK$13.3b |
1128 Wynn Macau | 1x | 5.9% | HK$29.1b |
200 Melco International Development | 0.2x | 7.1% | HK$6.9b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 200 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the peer average (2.7x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry
How does 200's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Hospitality Industry?
| 4 Companies | Price / Sales | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
1443 Fulum Group Holdings | 0.1x | n/a | US$22.72m |
1901 Feiyang International Holdings Group | 0.1x | n/a | US$7.38m |
3666 Shanghai XNG Holdings | 0.1x | n/a | US$6.81m |
8069 Flydoo Technology Holding | 0.07x | n/a | US$3.59m |
| 4 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 200 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the Hong Kong Hospitality industry average (0.7x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 200's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 0.2x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 1.5x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 200 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | HK$4.53 | HK$5.90 +30.2% | 15.6% | HK$7.60 | HK$4.50 | n/a | 8 |
| Nov ’25 | HK$4.82 | HK$5.93 +23.0% | 18.0% | HK$7.60 | HK$4.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Oct ’25 | HK$5.17 | HK$5.96 +15.2% | 22.9% | HK$8.30 | HK$3.50 | n/a | 7 |
| Sep ’25 | HK$4.14 | HK$6.23 +50.4% | 25.3% | HK$8.30 | HK$3.50 | n/a | 7 |
| Aug ’25 | HK$4.57 | HK$7.14 +56.3% | 17.2% | HK$8.30 | HK$5.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Jul ’25 | HK$5.25 | HK$7.17 +36.6% | 17.5% | HK$8.40 | HK$5.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Jun ’25 | HK$6.16 | HK$7.10 +15.3% | 17.4% | HK$8.40 | HK$5.00 | n/a | 7 |
| May ’25 | HK$5.93 | HK$6.93 +16.9% | 20.9% | HK$8.40 | HK$4.50 | n/a | 6 |
| Apr ’25 | HK$4.91 | HK$7.00 +42.6% | 15.7% | HK$8.30 | HK$5.50 | n/a | 6 |
| Mar ’25 | HK$5.05 | HK$7.00 +38.6% | 15.7% | HK$8.30 | HK$5.50 | n/a | 6 |
| Feb ’25 | HK$5.43 | HK$7.73 +42.4% | 16.9% | HK$9.90 | HK$5.50 | n/a | 6 |
| Jan ’25 | HK$5.47 | HK$7.92 +44.7% | 14.7% | HK$9.90 | HK$6.20 | n/a | 6 |
| Dec ’24 | HK$5.22 | HK$9.42 +80.4% | 23.9% | HK$13.60 | HK$6.20 | n/a | 6 |
| Nov ’24 | HK$5.40 | HK$10.46 +93.7% | 21.0% | HK$13.60 | HK$7.00 | HK$4.82 | 5 |
| Oct ’24 | HK$6.28 | HK$11.12 +77.1% | 16.5% | HK$13.60 | HK$8.30 | HK$5.17 | 5 |
| Sep ’24 | HK$7.08 | HK$12.05 +70.2% | 9.6% | HK$13.60 | HK$9.90 | HK$4.14 | 6 |
| Aug ’24 | HK$8.30 | HK$11.98 +44.4% | 8.9% | HK$13.20 | HK$9.90 | HK$4.57 | 6 |
| Jul ’24 | HK$7.28 | HK$12.48 +71.5% | 12.4% | HK$15.00 | HK$9.90 | HK$5.25 | 6 |
| Jun ’24 | HK$7.23 | HK$11.96 +65.4% | 13.7% | HK$15.00 | HK$9.90 | HK$6.16 | 7 |
| May ’24 | HK$9.06 | HK$11.84 +30.7% | 13.3% | HK$15.00 | HK$9.90 | HK$5.93 | 7 |
| Apr ’24 | HK$9.15 | HK$11.86 +29.6% | 16.7% | HK$15.00 | HK$8.60 | HK$4.91 | 7 |
| Mar ’24 | HK$10.42 | HK$11.73 +12.5% | 15.9% | HK$15.00 | HK$8.60 | HK$5.05 | 8 |
| Feb ’24 | HK$10.66 | HK$11.20 +5.1% | 21.2% | HK$15.00 | HK$7.30 | HK$5.43 | 8 |
| Jan ’24 | HK$8.46 | HK$8.71 +3.0% | 24.9% | HK$11.30 | HK$5.20 | HK$5.47 | 8 |
| Dec ’23 | HK$6.55 | HK$8.35 +27.5% | 24.1% | HK$11.30 | HK$5.20 | HK$5.22 | 8 |
| Nov ’23 | HK$4.58 | HK$8.30 +81.2% | 24.0% | HK$11.30 | HK$5.20 | HK$5.40 | 8 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.