Helens International Holdings Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 9869 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

9869 (HK$2.65) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$43.7)

Is 9869 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 9869 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 9869 (HK$2.65) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$43.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 9869 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9869?

Key metric: As 9869 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 9869. This is calculated by dividing 9869's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 9869's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	31.9x
Earnings	CN¥92.69m
Market Cap	CN¥2.96b

9869 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	13.9x
PEG Ratio	0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 9869's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 9869 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	27.4x
341 Café de Coral Holdings	13x	13.3%	HK$4.3b
9922 Jiumaojiu International Holdings	14.2x	19.2%	HK$4.6b
9658 Super Hi International Holding	61.3x	57.0%	HK$8.4b
538 Ajisen (China) Holdings	21x	n/a	HK$927.8m
9869 Helens International Holdings	31.9x	36.7%	HK$3.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 9869 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.9x) compared to the peer average (27.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 9869's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Hospitality Industry?

4 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
1383 LET Group Holdings	1.3x	n/a	US$38.09m
1655 Okura Holdings	0.8x	n/a	US$11.17m
8052 Luk Hing Entertainment Group Holdings	1.4x	n/a	US$2.82m
8510 Top Standard	0.9x	n/a	US$2.25m

No more companies available in this PE range

4 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 9869 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.9x) compared to the Hong Kong Hospitality industry average (14.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 9869's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

9869 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	31.9x
Fair PE Ratio	13x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 9869 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 9869 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$2.65	HK$2.56 -3.4%	35.9%	HK$4.53	HK$1.89	n/a	6
Nov ’25	HK$2.75	HK$2.56 -6.9%	35.9%	HK$4.53	HK$1.89	n/a	6
Oct ’25	HK$3.52	HK$2.69 -23.6%	32.5%	HK$4.55	HK$1.89	n/a	6
Sep ’25	HK$1.79	HK$3.28 +83.4%	28.8%	HK$4.57	HK$2.10	n/a	6
Aug ’25	HK$2.01	HK$3.78 +88.3%	15.6%	HK$4.46	HK$2.58	n/a	6
Jul ’25	HK$2.24	HK$3.86 +72.3%	15.0%	HK$4.46	HK$2.58	n/a	7
Jun ’25	HK$2.79	HK$4.57 +63.7%	41.3%	HK$9.35	HK$2.60	n/a	8
May ’25	HK$3.32	HK$4.57 +37.6%	41.3%	HK$9.35	HK$2.60	n/a	8
Apr ’25	HK$3.23	HK$7.91 +144.9%	35.6%	HK$11.06	HK$4.09	n/a	8
Mar ’25	HK$3.28	HK$8.71 +165.7%	27.8%	HK$11.17	HK$4.17	n/a	9
Feb ’25	HK$3.10	HK$8.71 +181.1%	27.8%	HK$11.17	HK$4.17	n/a	9
Jan ’25	HK$3.81	HK$8.10 +112.5%	31.6%	HK$11.15	HK$4.16	n/a	11
Dec ’24	HK$4.62	HK$8.40 +81.7%	26.8%	HK$11.00	HK$4.10	n/a	11
Nov ’24	HK$5.72	HK$8.43 +47.3%	25.6%	HK$10.92	HK$4.10	HK$2.75	11
Oct ’24	HK$6.16	HK$10.00 +62.4%	29.4%	HK$18.58	HK$6.97	HK$3.52	11
Sep ’24	HK$7.90	HK$10.12 +28.1%	29.2%	HK$18.71	HK$7.01	HK$1.79	11
Aug ’24	HK$8.93	HK$13.55 +51.8%	29.5%	HK$18.89	HK$7.08	HK$2.01	11
Jul ’24	HK$7.65	HK$14.96 +95.5%	25.1%	HK$20.02	HK$7.01	HK$2.24	11
Jun ’24	HK$7.86	HK$16.95 +115.6%	20.1%	HK$21.72	HK$9.03	HK$2.79	11
May ’24	HK$12.18	HK$16.95 +39.1%	20.1%	HK$21.72	HK$9.03	HK$3.32	11
Apr ’24	HK$13.40	HK$17.04 +27.1%	19.9%	HK$21.72	HK$9.10	HK$3.23	11
Mar ’24	HK$14.90	HK$16.71 +12.1%	17.3%	HK$19.66	HK$8.63	HK$3.28	10
Feb ’24	HK$14.82	HK$16.93 +14.3%	19.4%	HK$22.70	HK$8.71	HK$3.10	10
Jan ’24	HK$14.82	HK$15.63 +5.5%	21.1%	HK$21.99	HK$8.44	HK$3.81	10
Dec ’23	HK$14.62	HK$15.35 +5.0%	21.1%	HK$21.67	HK$8.32	HK$4.62	10
Nov ’23	HK$8.49	HK$16.16 +90.3%	15.0%	HK$21.53	HK$12.52	HK$5.72	8

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.