Impressive Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Fameglow Holdings (HKG:8603)

Fameglow Holdings Limited (HKG:8603) just reported some strong earnings, and the market reacted accordingly with a healthy uplift in the share price. However, our analysis suggests that shareholders may be missing some factors that indicate the earnings result was not as good as it looked.

View our latest analysis for Fameglow Holdings

Zooming In On Fameglow Holdings' Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

Fameglow Holdings has an accrual ratio of 1.02 for the year to March 2024. Ergo, its free cash flow is significantly weaker than its profit. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of HK$21m, which is significantly less than its profit of HK$40.8m. Fameglow Holdings shareholders will no doubt be hoping that its free cash flow bounces back next year, since it was down over the last twelve months.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Fameglow Holdings.

Our Take On Fameglow Holdings' Profit Performance

As we have made quite clear, we're a bit worried that Fameglow Holdings didn't back up the last year's profit with free cashflow. For this reason, we think that Fameglow Holdings' statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. But the happy news is that, while acknowledging we have to look beyond the statutory numbers, those numbers are still improving, with EPS growing at a very high rate over the last year. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Fameglow Holdings you should be mindful of and 2 of these are potentially serious.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Fameglow Holdings' profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com