Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Investors in Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited (HKG:780) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.1% to close at HK$21.42 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenues were CN¥4.7b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of CN¥0.28 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 12%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the 24 analysts covering Tongcheng Travel Holdings are now predicting revenues of CN¥19.3b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 5.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 14% to CN¥1.21. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥19.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.20 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Tongcheng Travel Holdings

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of HK$25.31, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Tongcheng Travel Holdings at HK$30.08 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$18.45. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Tongcheng Travel Holdings shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Tongcheng Travel Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Tongcheng Travel Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 25% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 11% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Tongcheng Travel Holdings is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Tongcheng Travel Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Tongcheng Travel Holdings Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.