Meituan (HKG:3690) Just Released Its Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Investors in Meituan (HKG:3690) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.8% to close at HK$133 following the release of its annual results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of CN¥338b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 3.3% to hit CN¥5.66 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Meituan after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Meituan's 40 analysts is for revenues of CN¥394.7b in 2025. This reflects a notable 17% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 14% to CN¥6.83. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥395.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥6.88 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Meituan

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of HK$197, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Meituan at HK$299 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$124. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Meituan's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 17% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 25% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Meituan's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Meituan. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Meituan going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Meituan Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.