Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, China Ecotourism Group Limited (HKG:1371) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for China Ecotourism Group
What Is China Ecotourism Group's Debt?
As you can see below, China Ecotourism Group had HK$350.0m of debt at December 2020, down from HK$392.9m a year prior. On the flip side, it has HK$76.4m in cash leading to net debt of about HK$273.6m.
How Strong Is China Ecotourism Group's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that China Ecotourism Group had liabilities of HK$526.9m due within 12 months and liabilities of HK$52.2m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of HK$76.4m and HK$70.7m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total HK$432.0m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the HK$117.4m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, China Ecotourism Group would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is China Ecotourism Group's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Over 12 months, China Ecotourism Group made a loss at the EBIT level, and saw its revenue drop to HK$119m, which is a fall of 23%. To be frank that doesn't bode well.
Caveat Emptor
While China Ecotourism Group's falling revenue is about as heartwarming as a wet blanket, arguably its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss is even less appealing. Its EBIT loss was a whopping HK$513m. If you consider the significant liabilities mentioned above, we are extremely wary of this investment. That said, it is possible that the company will turn its fortunes around. Nevertheless, we would not bet on it given that it lost HK$574m in just last twelve months, and it doesn't have much by way of liquid assets. So while it's not wise to assume the company will fail, we do think it's risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example China Ecotourism Group has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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About SEHK:1371
China Ecotourism Group
An investment holding company, provides technology and operation services for lottery systems, terminal equipment, and game products in the lottery market primarily in the People’s Republic of China.
Low and slightly overvalued.