Subdued Growth No Barrier To Greatime International Holdings Limited (HKG:844) With Shares Advancing 53%

Despite an already strong run, Greatime International Holdings Limited (HKG:844) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 53% in the last thirty days. Looking further back, the 20% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

Although its price has surged higher, there still wouldn't be many who think Greatime International Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.4x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Luxury industry is similar at about 0.6x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

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View our latest analysis for Greatime International Holdings

How Has Greatime International Holdings Performed Recently?

For example, consider that Greatime International Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Greatime International Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Greatime International Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 4.3%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year revenue growth is still a noteworthy 13% in total. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the revenue growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 9.1% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's curious that Greatime International Holdings' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Greatime International Holdings' P/S is back within range of the industry median. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Greatime International Holdings revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't resulting in a lower P/S as per our expectations, given they look worse than current industry outlook. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's hard to accept the current share price as fair value.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Greatime International Holdings you should be aware of, and 2 of them are a bit concerning.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.