Risks Still Elevated At These Prices As Samson Holding Ltd. (HKG:531) Shares Dive 30%

The Samson Holding Ltd. (HKG:531) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 30%. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 50% share price drop.

Although its price has dipped substantially, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Samson Holding's P/S ratio of 0.1x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Consumer Durables industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.4x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

View our latest analysis for Samson Holding

What Does Samson Holding's Recent Performance Look Like?

For example, consider that Samson Holding's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Samson Holding's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Samson Holding's Revenue Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Samson Holding's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 31% decrease to the company's top line. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in revenue being achieved in total. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 14% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's curious that Samson Holding's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Final Word

Following Samson Holding's share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Samson Holding revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't resulting in a lower P/S as per our expectations, given they look worse than current industry outlook. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, the probability of a share price decline will become quite substantial, placing shareholders at risk.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Samson Holding you should know about.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.