Vanov Holdings Company Limited's (HKG:2260) 26% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Those holding Vanov Holdings Company Limited (HKG:2260) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 26% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 3.8% in the last twelve months.

Following the firm bounce in price, Vanov Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 15.4x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 9x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Vanov Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Vanov Holdings

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Vanov Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Vanov Holdings' Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Vanov Holdings would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 11%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 10% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 23% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that Vanov Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

The strong share price surge has got Vanov Holdings' P/E rushing to great heights as well. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Vanov Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Vanov Holdings that you need to be mindful of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Vanov Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.