Earnings Miss: Prada S.p.A. Missed EPS By 5.6% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a sad week for Prada S.p.A. (HKG:1913), who've watched their investment drop 16% to HK$40.60 in the week since the company reported its half-yearly result. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of €2.7b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 5.6% to hit €0.15 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Prada's 16 analysts is for revenues of €5.82b in 2025. This reflects an okay 3.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 6.4% to €0.35. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €5.87b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.36 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Prada

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of HK$64.70, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Prada analyst has a price target of HK$87.51 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$49.70. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Prada's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Prada.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Prada's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$64.70, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Prada analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Prada .

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.