These Analysts Think CIMC Enric Holdings Limited's (HKG:3899) Sales Are Under Threat

The analysts covering CIMC Enric Holdings Limited (HKG:3899) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.

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Following the downgrade, the current consensus from CIMC Enric Holdings' ten analysts is for revenues of CN¥28b in 2025 which - if met - would reflect a notable 15% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to climb 17% to CN¥0.63. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥32b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.67 in 2025. Indeed, we can see that analyst sentiment has declined measurably after the new consensus came out, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a small dip in EPS estimates to boot.

See our latest analysis for CIMC Enric Holdings

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥7.63 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values CIMC Enric Holdings at CN¥8.39 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥6.53. With such a narrow range of valuations, analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 15% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 15% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 12% annually. So although CIMC Enric Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Lamentably, they also downgraded their sales forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the market itself. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to this year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of CIMC Enric Holdings going forwards.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for CIMC Enric Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.