Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited

SEHK:3808 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$57.6b

Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Valuation

Is 3808 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3808 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3808 (HK$20.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$41.43)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3808 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3808?

Key metric: As 3808 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 3808. This is calculated by dividing 3808's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 3808's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.5x
EarningsCN¥6.25b
Market CapCN¥53.46b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 3808's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 3808 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.8x
3898 Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric
10.4x13.3%HK$61.2b
2338 Weichai Power
8.3x12.1%HK$121.2b
317 CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering (Group)
71.1xn/aHK$29.0b
631 Sany Heavy Equipment International Holdings
9.2x25.8%HK$15.4b
3808 Sinotruk (Hong Kong)
8.5x12.2%HK$57.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3808 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.5x) compared to the peer average (24.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 3808's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Machinery Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
2060 Pujiang International Group
1xn/aUS$19.99m
No more companies available in this PE range
3808 8.5xIndustry Avg. 7.2xNo. of Companies10PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3808 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.5x) compared to the Hong Kong Machinery industry average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3808's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3808 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.5x
Fair PE Ratio8.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 3808 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3808 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$20.85
HK$24.90
+19.4%
9.5%HK$29.37HK$21.08n/a12
Nov ’25HK$20.85
HK$25.22
+21.0%
9.4%HK$29.58HK$21.23n/a12
Oct ’25HK$23.35
HK$24.60
+5.3%
9.8%HK$27.60HK$19.67n/a12
Sep ’25HK$19.50
HK$24.31
+24.7%
10.0%HK$27.57HK$19.65n/a13
Aug ’25HK$19.94
HK$23.83
+19.5%
6.5%HK$26.05HK$21.04n/a13
Jul ’25HK$20.30
HK$23.85
+17.5%
8.1%HK$29.05HK$21.36n/a12
Jun ’25HK$18.14
HK$23.75
+30.9%
8.4%HK$29.17HK$21.45n/a12
May ’25HK$19.56
HK$23.81
+21.7%
8.4%HK$29.25HK$21.50n/a12
Apr ’25HK$19.22
HK$23.77
+23.7%
8.4%HK$29.27HK$21.52n/a12
Mar ’25HK$19.44
HK$22.16
+14.0%
9.6%HK$25.01HK$17.91n/a12
Feb ’25HK$17.72
HK$20.76
+17.2%
12.0%HK$25.11HK$15.07n/a11
Jan ’25HK$15.32
HK$19.59
+27.8%
11.6%HK$22.58HK$15.06n/a12
Dec ’24HK$15.48
HK$19.37
+25.1%
11.9%HK$22.62HK$15.20n/a11
Nov ’24HK$15.00
HK$18.93
+26.2%
12.0%HK$22.09HK$14.84HK$20.8511
Oct ’24HK$15.08
HK$19.09
+26.6%
11.3%HK$22.16HK$14.89HK$23.3511
Sep ’24HK$14.54
HK$19.03
+30.9%
12.1%HK$22.29HK$15.00HK$19.5011
Aug ’24HK$15.92
HK$18.60
+16.8%
18.8%HK$23.55HK$10.50HK$19.9412
Jul ’24HK$15.22
HK$14.58
-4.2%
21.3%HK$19.63HK$9.41HK$20.3012
Jun ’24HK$11.60
HK$14.66
+26.3%
22.4%HK$20.09HK$9.42HK$18.1411
May ’24HK$11.94
HK$14.69
+23.0%
22.0%HK$20.64HK$9.68HK$19.5611
Apr ’24HK$12.20
HK$14.33
+17.5%
26.6%HK$20.64HK$6.52HK$19.2211
Mar ’24HK$12.74
HK$12.86
+0.9%
26.0%HK$16.66HK$6.72HK$19.4410
Feb ’24HK$13.68
HK$14.12
+3.2%
37.7%HK$26.83HK$6.89HK$17.7211
Jan ’24HK$10.88
HK$13.20
+21.3%
39.1%HK$26.12HK$6.66HK$15.3211
Dec ’23HK$10.66
HK$11.91
+11.7%
45.0%HK$25.50HK$6.50HK$15.4810
Nov ’23HK$7.85
HK$11.55
+47.2%
43.8%HK$25.04HK$6.02HK$15.0011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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