Accel Group Holdings Limited's (HKG:1283) 29% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Despite an already strong run, Accel Group Holdings Limited (HKG:1283) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 29% in the last thirty days. Unfortunately, despite the strong performance over the last month, the full year gain of 8.2% isn't as attractive.

After such a large jump in price, Accel Group Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 22.6x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 11x and even P/E's below 6x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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The recent earnings growth at Accel Group Holdings would have to be considered satisfactory if not spectacular. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this good earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Accel Group Holdings

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Accel Group Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Accel Group Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 4.2%. Still, lamentably EPS has fallen 40% in aggregate from three years ago, which is disappointing. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 19% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that Accel Group Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Accel Group Holdings' P/E?

Shares in Accel Group Holdings have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Accel Group Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You always need to take note of risks, for example - Accel Group Holdings has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

You might be able to find a better investment than Accel Group Holdings. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.