Li Auto Valuation

Is 2015 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2015 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2015 (HK$88.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$124.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2015 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2015?

Key metric: As 2015 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2015. This is calculated by dividing 2015's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2015's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.2x
EarningsCN¥10.17b
Market CapCN¥164.55b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2015's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2015 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.5x
175 Geely Automobile Holdings
8.2x-5.0%HK$135.3b
2333 Great Wall Motor
8.2x7.4%HK$211.3b
21.1x17.6%HK$846.0b
1958 BAIC Motor
8.5x8.7%HK$19.4b
2015 Li Auto
16.2x24.7%HK$22.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2015 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x) compared to the peer average (11.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2015's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Auto Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
2015 16.2xIndustry Avg. 17.8xNo. of Companies9PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2015 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x) compared to the Asian Auto industry average (17.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2015's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2015 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.2x
Fair PE Ratio14.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2015 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.9x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.


Discover undervalued companies