Li Auto Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 2015 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

2015 (HK$98.35) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$136.77)

Is 2015 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2015 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2015 (HK$98.35) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$136.77)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2015 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2015?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 2015. This is calculated by dividing 2015's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 2015's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥174.65b

2015 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	10.1x
PEG Ratio	0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2015's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2015 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.2x
175 Geely Automobile Holdings	9.7x	-4.5%	HK$150.8b
2333 Great Wall Motor	8.3x	7.1%	HK$215.1b
1211 BYD	23.1x	17.3%	HK$931.6b
1958 BAIC Motor	7.5x	8.7%	HK$17.3b
2015 Li Auto	17.2x	25.1%	HK$24.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2015 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the peer average (12.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2015's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Auto Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	16.6%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	16.6%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2015 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the Asian Auto industry average (15.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2015's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2015 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	17.2x
Fair PE Ratio	15.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2015 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.