Stock Analysis

Revenue Downgrade: Here's What Analysts Forecast For Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries S.A. (ATH:MOH)

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The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries S.A. (ATH:MOH), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well.

After the downgrade, the consensus from Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries' seven analysts is for revenues of €13b in 2023, which would reflect a stressful 20% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Before the latest update, the analysts were foreseeing €15b of revenue in 2023. It looks like forecasts have become a fair bit less optimistic on Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries, given the measurable cut to revenue estimates.

See our latest analysis for Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries

ATSE:MOH Earnings and Revenue Growth June 4th 2023

We'd point out that there was no major changes to their price target of €25.71, suggesting the latest estimates were not enough to shift their view on the value of the business. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries at €28.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €20.20. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 26% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2023. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 5.0% annually for the foreseeable future. So it's pretty clear that Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries' revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their revenue estimates for this year. The analysts also expect revenues to shrink faster than the wider market. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to this year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries going forwards.

That said, the analysts might have good reason to be negative on Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries, given a weak balance sheet. For more information, you can click here to discover this and the 2 other warning signs we've identified.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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Find out whether Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.