Stock Analysis

Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries S.A. Just Missed EPS By 10%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

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It's shaping up to be a tough period for Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries S.A. (ATH:MOH), which a week ago released some disappointing annual results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €13b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 10%, coming in at just €7.43 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries

ATSE:MOH Earnings and Revenue Growth April 7th 2024

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the six analysts covering Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries, is for revenues of €12.5b in 2024. This implies a discernible 6.4% reduction in Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries' revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 30% to €5.23 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €13.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of €4.67 in 2024. While revenue forecasts have been revised downwards, the analysts look to have become more optimistic on the company's cost base, given the decent improvement in to the earnings per share numbers.

There's been no real change to the average price target of €28.73, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries at €31.60 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €25.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 6.4% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 14% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 1.8% annually for the foreseeable future. The forecasts do look bearish for Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries following these results. Unfortunately they also cut their revenue estimates for next year. Forecasts imply the business' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. That said, earnings per share are more important for creating value for shareholders. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at €28.73, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to be mindful of.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.