Earnings Report: Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries S.A. Missed Revenue Estimates By 8.4%

Shareholders might have noticed that Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries S.A. (ATH:MOH) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.6% to €26.70 in the past week. Revenues came in 8.4% below expectations, at €3.0b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of €7.43 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from six analysts covering Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries is for revenues of €11.8b in 2024. This implies a not inconsiderable 9.0% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to crater 26% to €5.23 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €12.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of €4.67 in 2024. Although the analysts have lowered their revenue forecasts, they've also made a substantial gain in their earnings per share estimates, which implies there's been something of an uptick in sentiment following the latest results.

There's been no real change to the average price target of €29.39, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €33.00 and the most bearish at €25.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 12% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 14% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 1.4% annually for the foreseeable future. So it's pretty clear that Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries' revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries following these results. Unfortunately they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our analysts estimates suggest that Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries is still expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries (2 are a bit unpleasant!) that we have uncovered.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.