We Think Severn Trent (LON:SVT) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 05, 2022
LSE:SVT
Source: Shutterstock

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Severn Trent Plc (LON:SVT) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Severn Trent

How Much Debt Does Severn Trent Carry?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Severn Trent had UK£6.35b in debt in September 2021; about the same as the year before. Net debt is about the same, since the it doesn't have much cash.

debt-equity-history-analysis
LSE:SVT Debt to Equity History January 5th 2022

How Strong Is Severn Trent's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Severn Trent had liabilities of UK£958.3m due within 12 months and liabilities of UK£9.07b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of UK£53.9m as well as receivables valued at UK£551.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by UK£9.43b.

When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's UK£7.36b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Severn Trent shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (7.5), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 2.4 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Given the debt load, it's hardly ideal that Severn Trent's EBIT was pretty flat over the last twelve months. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Severn Trent's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. In the last three years, Severn Trent's free cash flow amounted to 28% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.

Our View

To be frank both Severn Trent's level of total liabilities and its track record of managing its debt, based on its EBITDA, make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least its EBIT growth rate is not so bad. We should also note that Water Utilities industry companies like Severn Trent commonly do use debt without problems. Overall, it seems to us that Severn Trent's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Severn Trent (1 doesn't sit too well with us) you should be aware of.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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