LSE:GOG

Stock Analysis Report

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Executive Summary

The Go-Ahead Group plc provides bus and rail passenger transportation services in the United Kingdom and internationally. More Details


Snowflake Analysis

Reasonable growth potential with mediocre balance sheet.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Go-Ahead Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: GOG's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-0.6%

GOG

-2.1%

GB Transportation

-3.4%

GB Market


1 Year Return

-72.7%

GOG

-51.8%

GB Transportation

-19.7%

GB Market

Return vs Industry: GOG underperformed the UK Transportation industry which returned -51.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GOG underperformed the UK Market which returned -19.7% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

GOGIndustryMarket
7 Day-0.6%-2.1%-3.4%
30 Day-4.6%-1.8%-4.5%
90 Day-9.8%3.2%-5.1%
1 Year-71.7%-72.7%-49.9%-51.8%-16.6%-19.7%
3 Year-61.8%-67.3%-45.1%-51.6%-12.8%-23.6%
5 Year-71.8%-77.3%-25.2%-37.1%9.9%-14.9%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Go-Ahead Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Go-Ahead Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

32.6%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: GOG (£5.79) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£8.59)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GOG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: GOG is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the XE Transportation industry average.

PE vs Market: GOG is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the UK market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate GOG's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: GOG is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (1.1x) compared to the GB Transportation industry average (0.6x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Go-Ahead Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

45.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GOG is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.2%).

Earnings vs Market: GOG is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: GOG's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: GOG's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-33.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GOG's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-33.4% per year).


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GOG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (29.6%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Go-Ahead Group performed over the past 5 years?

-14.1%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GOG is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: GOG is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GOG is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 14.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare GOG's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: GOG is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Transportation industry (-25.6%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: GOG has a negative Return on Equity (-4.5%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Go-Ahead Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: GOG's short term assets (£870.2M) do not cover its short term liabilities (£1.3B).

Long Term Liabilities: GOG's short term assets (£870.2M) exceed its long term liabilities (£703.6M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: GOG's debt to equity ratio (152.6%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: GOG's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 373.5% to 152.6% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: GOG's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (114.7%).

Interest Coverage: GOG is unprofitable, therefore interest payments are not well covered by earnings.


Balance Sheet


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Go-Ahead Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

10.32%

Forecast Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate GOG's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate GOG's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if GOG's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if GOG's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: GOG is not paying a notable dividend for the UK market.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of GOG's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the UK market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

6.1yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

David Brown (60 yo)

9.25yrs

Tenure

UK£1,269,000

Compensation

Mr. David Allen Brown has been Group Chief Executive of The Go-Ahead Group PLC since July 3, 2011. Mr. Brown serves as the Chief Executive Officer of Go-Ahead London Limited. He served as Managing Director ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: David's total compensation ($USD1.65M) is above average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD907.46K).

Compensation vs Earnings: David's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
David Brown
Group Chief Executive & Director 9.25yrsUK£1.27m0.20%
£ 508.4k
Elodie Brian
CFO & Director1.33yrsUK£665.07k0.014%
£ 34.2k
Holly Gillis
Head of Investor Relationsno datano datano data
Martin Dean
Managing Director of Bus Development12.25yrsno datano data
Richard Stevens
Managing Director of Plymouth Citybus8.42yrsno datano data
David Statham
Managing Director of Southeastern Rail6.08yrsno datano data
Mitesh Kotecha
Interim Head of Investor Relationsno datano datano data
Nigel Featham
Managing Director of Go-North West1.33yrsno datano data
Charles Horton
Chief Executive Officer of GTRno datano datano data
Carolyn Ferguson
Group Company Secretary14.25yrsno data0.010%
£ 25.8k
Patrick Verwer
Chief Executive Officer of Govia Thameslink Railway2.25yrsno datano data
Paul Edwards
Finance Director of Go North East4.83yrsno datano data

6.1yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Management: GOG's management team is seasoned and experienced (6.1 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
David Brown
Group Chief Executive & Director 9.25yrsUK£1.27m0.20%
£ 508.4k
Elodie Brian
CFO & Director1.33yrsUK£665.07k0.014%
£ 34.2k
Katherine Christina Mary Ker
Non-Independent Non-Executive Director10.25yrsUK£65.00k0.00027%
£ 672.7
Adrian James Ewer
Senior Independent Director1yrUK£60.00k0.0070%
£ 17.5k
Clare Hollingsworth
Independent Non-Executive Chairman1yrno data0.0053%
£ 13.3k
Leanne Wood
Independent Non-Executive Director3yrsUK£52.00k0.00068%
£ 1.7k
Harry Holt
Independent Non-Executive Director3yrsUK£52.00kno data

3.0yrs

Average Tenure

60yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: GOG's board of directors are considered experienced (3 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: GOG insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

The Go-Ahead Group plc's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: The Go-Ahead Group plc
  • Ticker: GOG
  • Exchange: LSE
  • Founded: 1987
  • Industry: Railroads
  • Sector: Transportation
  • Market Cap: UK£249.135m
  • Shares outstanding: 43.03m
  • Website: https://www.go-ahead.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • The Go-Ahead Group plc
  • 4 Matthew Parker Street
  • Westminster
  • London
  • Greater London
  • SW1H 9NP
  • United Kingdom

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
GOGLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPMay 1994
GHGU.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesOrdinary SharesUSUSDMay 1994
G9XDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesOrdinary SharesDEEURMay 1994
GOGLBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPMay 1994

Biography

The Go-Ahead Group plc provides bus and rail passenger transportation services in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates through three segments: Regional Bus, London & International Bus, and R ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/10/28 21:18
End of Day Share Price2020/10/28 00:00
Earnings2020/06/27
Annual Earnings2020/06/27


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.