LSE:GOG

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

The Go-Ahead Group plc provides bus and rail passenger transportation services in the United Kingdom and internationally.

Snowflake

Fundamentals

Excellent balance sheet average dividend payer.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Go-Ahead Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events


Market Performance


7 Day Return

0%

GOG

7.5%

GB Transportation

1.7%

GB Market


1 Year Return

33.1%

GOG

2.7%

GB Transportation

2.9%

GB Market

Return vs Industry: GOG exceeded the UK Transportation industry which returned 2.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GOG exceeded the UK Market which returned 2.9% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

GOGIndustryMarket
7 Day0%7.5%1.7%
30 Day9.1%4.3%-0.7%
90 Day0.9%5.6%-1.8%
1 Year41.5%33.1%9.6%2.7%8.0%2.9%
3 Year25.4%5.9%34.1%16.3%18.2%3.8%
5 Year12.2%-11.8%29.6%4.8%35.6%6.1%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Go-Ahead Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Go-Ahead Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

23.6%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Undervalued: GOG (£21.88) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£28.62)

Significantly Undervalued: GOG is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: GOG is poor value based on its PE Ratio (16x) compared to the Transportation industry average (10.4x).

PE vs Market: GOG is good value based on its PE Ratio (16x) compared to the UK market (16.7x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

Low PEG Ratio: GOG is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (2.2x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: GOG is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (3x) compared to the GB Transportation industry average (1.9x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Go-Ahead Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 7 analysts?

7.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GOG's forecast earnings growth (7.2% per year) is above the savings rate (1.2%).

Earnings vs Market: GOG's earnings (7.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the UK market (12.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: GOG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: GOG's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-24% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GOG's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-24% per year).


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

High Future ROE: GOG's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (21.6%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Go-Ahead Group performed over the past 5 years?

2.7%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GOG's earnings have grown by 2.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: GOG's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: GOG had negative earnings growth (-33.9%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Transportation industry average (18.9%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst GOG's Return on Equity (21.76%) is high, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.


Return on Assets

ROA vs Industry: GOG's Return on Assets is below or equal to the Transportation industry average last year.


Return on Capital Employed

ROCE Improving: GOG's Return on Capital Employed has declined over the past 3 years.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Go-Ahead Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: GOG's short term assets (£1.0B) exceeds its short term liabilities (£903.7M)

Long Term Liabilities: GOG's short term assets (1.0B) exceeds its long term liabilities (552.3M)


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: GOG's debt to equity ratio (117.9%) is considered high

Reducing Debt: GOG's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 476.5% to 117.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: GOG's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (54.9%).

Interest Coverage: GOG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (17.9x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: GOG has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: GOG's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 2.468680x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Go-Ahead Group's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

4.67%

Current Dividend Yield


Upcoming Dividend Payment

Purchase Go-Ahead Group before the 'Buy Limit' to receive their next dividend payment.


Dividend Yield vs Market

company4.7%marketbottom25%2.0%markettop25%5.4%industryaverage6.8%forecastin3Years4.8%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry


Stability and Growth of Payments

Notable Dividend: GOG's dividend (4.67%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (1.99%).

High Dividend: GOG's dividend (4.67%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (5.41%).

Stable Dividend: GOG's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: GOG's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (74.6%), GOG's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: GOG's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be covered by earnings (58.8% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Go-Ahead Group's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

7.4yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

David Brown (59yo)

8.3yrs

Tenure

UK£1,269,000

Compensation

Mr. David Allen Brown has been Group Chief Executive of The Go-Ahead Group PLC since July 3, 2011. Mr. Brown serves as the Chief Executive Officer of Go-Ahead London Limited. He served as Managing Director ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs. Market: David's total compensation ($USD1.63M) is about average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD1.81M).

Compensation vs Earnings: David's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Management Age and Tenure

7.4yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Management: GOG's management team is seasoned and experienced (7.4 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

4.3yrs

Average Tenure

59yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: GOG's board of directors are considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown


Management Team

  • Charles Horton

    Chief Executive Officer of GTR

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • David Brown (59yo)

    Group Chief Executive & Director

    • Tenure: 8.3yrs
    • Compensation: UK£1.27m
  • Carolyn Ferguson (47yo)

    Group Company Secretary

    • Tenure: 13.3yrs
  • Martin Dean

    Managing Director of Bus Development

    • Tenure: 11.3yrs
  • Richard Stevens

    Managing Director of Plymouth Citybus

    • Tenure: 7.4yrs
  • David Statham

    Managing Director of Southeastern Rail

    • Tenure: 5.1yrs
  • Holly Gillis

    Head of Investor Relations

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Mitesh Kotecha

    Interim Head of Investor Relations

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Elodie Brian

    CFO & Director

    • Tenure: 0.3yrs
    • Compensation: UK£665.07k
  • Nigel Featham

    Managing Director of Go-North West

    • Tenure: 0.3yrs

Board Members

  • Andrew Allner (65yo)

    Non-Executive Chairman

    • Tenure: 6.5yrs
    • Compensation: UK£185.00k
  • Robin Ker (59yo)

    Senior Independent Director

    • Tenure: 6.5yrs
    • Compensation: UK£65.00k
  • Adrian James Ewer (66yo)

    Non-Executive Director

    • Tenure: 6.5yrs
    • Compensation: UK£60.00k
  • David Brown (59yo)

    Group Chief Executive & Director

    • Tenure: 8.3yrs
    • Compensation: UK£1.27m
  • Clare Hollingsworth (59yo)

    Non-Executive Director

    • Tenure: 0.2yrs
  • Leanne Wood (46yo)

    Independent Non-Executive Director

    • Tenure: 2yrs
    • Compensation: UK£52.00k
  • Harry Holt

    Independent Non-Executive Director

    • Tenure: 2yrs
    • Compensation: UK£52.00k
  • Elodie Brian

    CFO & Director

    • Tenure: 0.3yrs
    • Compensation: UK£665.07k

Company Information

The Go-Ahead Group plc's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: The Go-Ahead Group plc
  • Ticker: GOG
  • Exchange: LSE
  • Founded: 1987
  • Industry: Railroads
  • Sector: Transportation
  • Market Cap: UK£951.783m
  • Shares outstanding: 42.99m
  • Website: https://www.go-ahead.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • The Go-Ahead Group plc
  • 4 Matthew Parker Street
  • Westminster
  • London
  • Greater London
  • SW1H 9NP
  • United Kingdom

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
GOGLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPMay 1994
G9XDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesOrdinary SharesDEEURMay 1994
GOGLBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPMay 1994

Biography

The Go-Ahead Group plc provides bus and rail passenger transportation services in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates through three segments: Regional Bus, London & International Bus, and R ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/10/18 20:33
End of Day Share Price2019/10/18 00:00
Earnings2019/06/29
Annual Earnings2019/06/29


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.