Alaska Air Group, Inc.

LSE:0HC3 Stock Report

Market Cap: US$8.4b

Alaska Air Group Valuation

Is 0HC3 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 0HC3 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 0HC3 ($66.29) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($103.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 0HC3 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 0HC3?

Key metric: As 0HC3 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 0HC3. This is calculated by dividing 0HC3's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 0HC3's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio26x
EarningsUS$322.00m
Market CapUS$8.38b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 0HC3's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 0HC3 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.2x
EZJ easyJet
9.5x9.5%UK£4.3b
IAG International Consolidated Airlines Group
6.3x5.6%UK£14.9b
JET2 Jet2
6.9x-0.3%UK£3.4b
WIZZ Wizz Air Holdings
6.1x18.3%UK£1.5b
0HC3 Alaska Air Group
26x39.5%US$8.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 0HC3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26x) compared to the peer average (7.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 0HC3's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
0HC3 26.0xIndustry Avg. 9.5xNo. of Companies9PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 0HC3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (9.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 0HC3's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

0HC3 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio26x
Fair PE Ratio25.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 0HC3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 0HC3 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$66.29
US$73.25
+10.5%
16.1%US$90.00US$45.00n/a15
Dec ’25US$52.58
US$61.12
+16.2%
14.7%US$80.00US$45.00n/a15
Nov ’25US$48.84
US$55.75
+14.2%
10.8%US$70.00US$45.00n/a13
Oct ’25US$44.75
US$53.32
+19.1%
13.6%US$70.00US$40.00n/a12
Sep ’25US$36.03
US$51.82
+43.8%
14.9%US$70.00US$40.00n/a12
Aug ’25US$36.29
US$52.07
+43.5%
14.7%US$70.00US$40.00n/a12
Jul ’25US$40.05
US$55.48
+38.5%
14.5%US$75.00US$42.00n/a12
Jun ’25US$41.71
US$55.73
+33.6%
14.9%US$75.00US$42.00n/a11
May ’25US$42.26
US$55.60
+31.6%
16.0%US$75.00US$42.00n/a10
Apr ’25US$43.16
US$50.82
+17.7%
15.8%US$70.00US$40.00n/a11
Mar ’25US$37.10
US$50.36
+35.8%
16.4%US$70.00US$40.00n/a11
Feb ’25US$36.00
US$49.73
+38.1%
17.0%US$70.00US$40.00n/a11
Jan ’25US$39.30
US$50.09
+27.5%
17.8%US$70.00US$39.00n/a11
Dec ’24US$39.75
US$50.46
+26.9%
17.3%US$70.00US$39.00US$52.5813
Nov ’24US$31.02
US$51.46
+65.9%
16.6%US$70.00US$39.00US$48.8413
Oct ’24US$37.10
US$62.85
+69.4%
13.8%US$75.00US$50.00US$44.7513
Sep ’24US$41.69
US$65.00
+55.9%
10.5%US$75.00US$55.00US$36.0313
Aug ’24US$47.73
US$66.08
+38.4%
8.7%US$75.00US$58.00US$36.2913
Jul ’24US$52.89
US$65.35
+23.5%
9.9%US$75.00US$55.00US$40.0513
Jun ’24US$44.90
US$64.65
+44.0%
9.7%US$75.00US$55.00US$41.7113
May ’24US$43.90
US$66.04
+50.4%
14.4%US$91.00US$55.00US$42.2613
Apr ’24US$41.70
US$65.65
+57.5%
14.1%US$91.00US$58.50US$43.1613
Mar ’24US$48.46
US$65.27
+34.7%
14.8%US$91.00US$54.00US$37.1013
Feb ’24US$50.90
US$64.73
+27.2%
15.6%US$91.00US$54.00US$36.0013
Jan ’24US$42.20
US$60.82
+44.1%
19.5%US$90.00US$45.00US$39.3014
Dec ’23US$47.68
US$61.58
+29.2%
22.3%US$95.00US$45.00US$39.7512

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 11:06
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Alaska Air Group, Inc. is covered by 35 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Garrett ChaseBarclays
Brandon OglenskiBarclays
David FintzenBarclays