ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

LSE:0A33 Stock Report

Market Cap: US$15.9b

ZTO Express (Cayman) Valuation

Is 0A33 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 0A33 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 0A33 ($19.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($34.77)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 0A33 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 0A33?

Key metric: As 0A33 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 0A33. This is calculated by dividing 0A33's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 0A33's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.5x
EarningsCN¥8.63b
Market CapCN¥115.97b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 0A33's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 0A33 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.7x
IDS International Distribution Services
13.8x27.2%UK£3.5b
DX. DX (Group)
13.5x6.7%UK£306.8m
IAG International Consolidated Airlines Group
6.2x5.6%UK£14.7b
EZJ easyJet
9.5x9.5%UK£4.3b
0A33 ZTO Express (Cayman)
13.5x12.4%US$15.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 0A33 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the peer average (10.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 0A33's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Logistics Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
0A33 13.5xIndustry Avg. 13.5xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 0A33 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the European Logistics industry average (13.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 0A33's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

0A33 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.5x
Fair PE Ratio16.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 0A33 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 0A33 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$19.75
US$26.75
+35.4%
12.4%US$34.23US$20.47n/a20
Dec ’25US$19.05
US$26.96
+41.6%
12.6%US$34.53US$20.48n/a21
Nov ’25US$23.34
US$28.97
+24.1%
10.9%US$38.20US$20.38n/a21
Oct ’25US$25.44
US$29.00
+14.0%
12.9%US$38.73US$20.48n/a21
Sep ’25US$21.64
US$28.54
+31.9%
12.7%US$38.15US$20.36n/a21
Aug ’25US$18.59
US$28.46
+53.1%
15.7%US$38.27US$14.61n/a21
Jul ’25US$20.63
US$28.45
+37.9%
15.7%US$38.25US$14.60n/a21
Jun ’25US$22.94
US$28.59
+24.6%
14.9%US$38.36US$14.65n/a21
May ’25US$21.10
US$28.11
+33.2%
15.0%US$38.25US$14.67n/a21
Apr ’25US$21.13
US$28.35
+34.2%
15.2%US$38.35US$14.64n/a20
Mar ’25US$20.18
US$30.07
+49.0%
19.9%US$39.48US$14.57n/a19
Feb ’25US$16.53
US$30.95
+87.2%
19.1%US$39.57US$14.61n/a20
Jan ’25US$21.18
US$31.68
+49.6%
16.5%US$39.78US$14.69n/a20
Dec ’24US$22.30
US$32.13
+44.1%
17.2%US$41.01US$14.73US$19.0520
Nov ’24US$23.46
US$35.25
+50.3%
10.7%US$42.59US$29.92US$23.3420
Oct ’24US$24.17
US$35.33
+46.2%
10.5%US$42.59US$29.92US$25.4420
Sep ’24US$25.35
US$35.70
+40.8%
10.6%US$42.84US$30.10US$21.6421
Aug ’24US$27.20
US$36.78
+35.2%
9.1%US$42.97US$29.89US$18.5921
Jul ’24US$25.27
US$36.49
+44.4%
8.8%US$42.55US$29.60US$20.6321
Jun ’24US$25.49
US$37.21
+46.0%
8.5%US$43.57US$30.30US$22.9421
May ’24US$27.63
US$35.12
+27.1%
9.1%US$42.00US$30.16US$21.1021
Apr ’24US$28.71
US$34.97
+21.8%
8.2%US$41.00US$30.20US$21.1321
Mar ’24US$24.79
US$34.90
+40.8%
8.9%US$41.13US$29.62US$20.1821
Feb ’24US$29.21
US$35.21
+20.5%
9.2%US$41.77US$30.08US$16.5321
Jan ’24US$26.65
US$33.87
+27.1%
10.8%US$40.43US$24.66US$21.1821
Dec ’23US$24.80
US$32.81
+32.3%
11.1%US$39.10US$23.86US$22.3021

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/26 01:48
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/26 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is covered by 43 analysts. 24 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Yiqun ChenBOCI Research Ltd.
Yifan ZhouBOCI Research Ltd.
Fan TsoBofA Global Research