Airtel Africa Plc (LON:AAF) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

It's been a pretty great week for Airtel Africa Plc (LON:AAF) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to UK£1.44 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of US$0.036 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of US$1.3b came in 4.2% ahead of analyst predictions. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Airtel Africa

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Airtel Africa's eleven analysts is for revenues of US$5.84b in 2026. This would reflect a huge 22% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 963% to US$0.17. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.82b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.16 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a nice gain to earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

The consensus price target was unchanged at UK£1.41, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Airtel Africa analyst has a price target of UK£2.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£1.15. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Airtel Africa's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 18% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 8.2% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.2% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Airtel Africa to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Airtel Africa following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at UK£1.41, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Airtel Africa. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Airtel Africa going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Airtel Africa you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.